棕榈油下挫、鸡蛋劲升

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Palm oil prices are under pressure due to Indonesia's policy changes and high inventories, while egg prices are rising due to supply reduction and increased demand. The prices of other products such as pork, soybean meal, cotton, and sugar are also affected by different supply - demand factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are falling. Indonesia canceled the B50 plan and will continue with B40, easing supply concerns. Malaysia's December palm oil inventory reached a nearly seven - year high. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% on March 1, and China's pre - emptive purchases and high domestic inventories also add pressure [2]. - The main 2605 contract of palm oil has fallen below the 40 - day moving average, with weakening technical indicators. It is recommended to close long positions [3][6]. Egg - Egg prices are rising. Due to the continuous culling of old hens and a decrease in the number of newly - laid hens in January, egg production capacity has decreased. The start of Spring Festival stocking and increased purchases by food processing enterprises have led to rising prices [5]. - The main 2603 contract of eggs has broken through the moving average system, with strengthening technical indicators. It is recommended to enter long positions when the price finds support during fluctuations [5]. Pig - The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, but the upward trend remains. After the peak slaughter in December 2025, the number of pigs slaughtered by large - scale enterprises in January decreased, and the market has a strong mentality of holding back sales. The peak demand season before the Spring Festival supports the price of pigs [7]. - The main 2603 contract of live pigs is still above the moving average. It is recommended to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 11850 - 11900 [7]. Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices are fluctuating downward. China's large imports of soybeans and high domestic soybean meal inventories have put pressure on prices [9]. - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal is below the moving average system, with weakening technical indicators. It is recommended to participate in short - selling with a stop - loss [9]. Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating at a high level. Although some long positions are being closed, the market has not reversed. The expected decrease in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, strong demand, and optimistic export expectations support cotton prices [12]. - The main 2605 contract of cotton is fluctuating near the short - term moving average. It is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 14550 - 14620 [12]. Sugar - Sugar prices are fluctuating sideways. The peak of sugar production in southern China has led to sufficient supply, while Spring Festival stocking has boosted demand [14]. - The main 2605 contract of sugar is fluctuating sideways. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions with a light position and set a stop - loss at the 40 - day moving average [14].