纯碱日报：短期震荡偏弱-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is oscillating weakly [1] Core View of the Report - Currently, soda ash production is increasing, demand is average, and the purchasing willingness is weak. With the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there may be a rebound due to interest - rate cut news, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The main soda ash contract opened higher and closed lower, showing a weakening trend within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened wide, indicating a short - term weakening signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 210,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 30,978 lots. The highest price was 1228, the lowest was 1185, and the closing price was 1193, down 25 yuan/ton or 2.05% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: The spot market was stable with oscillations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably with few overhauls, and production remained at a high level. Downstream purchasing sentiment was average, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and mainly low - price replenishment [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 57 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43% from 84.39% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.47%, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,575,000 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 0.66% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,300 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 2,300 tons or 0.15%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,431,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,390 tons or 10.06% [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate was 99.70%, a month - on - month increase of 21.52 percentage points. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the water - cooling and cold - repair of glass production lines [3][4] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to increased costs [4] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Recently, a glass production line started production, and the cold - repair rhythm slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery of the rigid demand for soda ash. Additionally, there is some short - term support under continuous losses. Overall, with increasing soda ash production, average demand, weak purchasing willingness, and the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although it may rebound due to interest - rate cut news, considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5]