焦炭日报：短期延续反弹为主-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report anticipates that coke will continue its short - term rebound, and suggests a low - buying strategy. Traders should focus on the support at the previous low and the resistance at the previous high [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Analysis Coke Inventory - As of January 9, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 6.04% month - on - month to 86.07 tons, the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 0.27% to 645.73 tons, and the port coke inventory rose to 249.1 tons. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 2.22 tons to 980.9 tons, reaching a 3 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of over 1% [1] Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 45 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 30 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 17 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 86 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 9 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.37% to 79.31% month - on - month, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate increased by 0.78% to 86.04% month - on - month, the steel mill profitability decreased by 0.44% to 37.66%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to increase by 2.07 tons to 229.5 tons, reaching a one - month high, a year - on - year increase of 5.13 tons or 2.29% [1] 3.2 Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory of coal mines continued to increase slightly, the port inventory increased by 551.96 tons, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased to 1071.68 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills decreased by 797.73 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2716.37 tons, reaching a nearly 9 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of over 15% [2] 3.3 News - The US White House announced a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from the 15th. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced the continuation of the individual income tax policy to support residents' housing exchange and purchase. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on January 15 with a term of 6 months [2] 3.4 Main Logic - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by the cost of upstream coking coal, the demand of downstream steel, and the orientation of macro - policies. The comprehensive coking coal inventory is significantly lower than in previous years, while the comprehensive coke inventory is at a moderately high level, with overall weak supply - demand. During the seasonal inventory - building period of downstream steel mills, the hot metal output continues to rise, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment boosts the short - term demand for coking coal and coke. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts by the domestic central bank and the Federal Reserve. The opening price of the main coke contract today is 1755, the closing price is 1745, the previous low is 1719, the previous high is 1817, and the position decreased by 1163 lots during the day [2]