玻璃日报：短期震荡-20260115

1. Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating of the glass industry is "shock", indicating short - term volatility [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the interest rate cut news, market sentiment cooled, downstream hesitation increased, and there is an expectation of supply contraction before the Spring Festival. It is expected that glass prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with the possibility of weakening if the price breaks below the 20 - day moving average later. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold repair situations [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The glass futures main contract opened high and closed low, with a short - term weakening signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 355,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 20,430 lots. The closing price was 1086 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: Most glass enterprises maintained stable prices, with only a few enterprises in some regions raising prices. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 66 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, the weekly output of float glass was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry's average operating rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The overall glass enterprise inventory is showing a downward trend [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and home - improvement orders are mainly small - value scattered orders [2] Macro - news - On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to support economic structural transformation and optimization [3]