塑料日报：高开后震荡下行-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 15th, the plastic's maintenance devices changed little, with an operating rate of around 86%, at a neutral level. The overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited, and the recent upward space of plastic was expected to be limited. Due to new capacity coming into operation recently, the operating rate was higher than that of PP, and the peak season of agricultural film was gradually ending, so the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% month - on - month. The orders of agricultural film continued to decline, and the raw material inventory also decreased, while the orders of packaging film increased slightly. The inventory accumulation amplitude during the New Year's Day this year was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. New capacity was put into operation recently, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. With the temperature dropping, the northern demand decreased, and it was expected that the downstream operating rate would decline later [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then increased positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6746 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6888 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6785 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.54%. The open interest increased by 980 lots to 467,506 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market mostly rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6720 - 6920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9100 - 9360 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8440 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 15th, the plastic operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% month - on - month. The orders of agricultural film continued to decline, and the raw material inventory decreased, while the orders of packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 530,000 tons week - on - week, 5,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation amplitude during the New Year's Day this year was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton month - on - month, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $745/ton month - on - month [4].