沪铜日报：盘面回调-20260115

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Shanghai copper market opened higher but declined during the day. The copper smelters cannot profit from long - term contracts, with the spot market remaining weakly stable. By - products like sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit sources. The refined copper output is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may tighten the copper supply. Terminal demand shows strong growth, but the copper products sector is cautious, and copper inventories have increased significantly. Trump's decision weakens the expectation of refined copper being included in the tariff scope, and the copper price increase has slowed, but the probability of a sharp decline is low [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and then declined during the day. The refined copper output is expected to drop in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 new smelter delaying its launch. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may control 15% of the global copper supply. Terminal demand grows strongly, but the copper products sector is cautious. Copper inventories have increased significantly, and the copper price increase has slowed, with a low probability of a sharp decline [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper opened higher and declined during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 160 yuan/ton. On January 14, 2026, the LME official price was 13,240 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of +95 US dollars/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of January 12, the spot TC was - 45.1 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.6 cents/pound [6] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 162,700 tons, an increase of 13,378 tons from the previous period. As of January 12, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,000 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons. LME copper inventory is 141,600 tons, an increase of 75 tons. COMEX copper inventory is 535,800 short tons, an increase of 4,090 short tons [9]