12月金融数据点评：2026年初降息落地，后续降准亦可期

Economic Overview - In December 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 2.21 trillion yuan, which was 645.7 billion yuan less than the same month last year and 280.8 billion yuan less than November 2025, exceeding the consensus expectation of 1.82 trillion yuan[2] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.3%, slightly above the expected 8.2%, but down 0.23 percentage points from November 2025[2] Loan and Deposit Trends - New RMB loans in December amounted to 975.7 billion yuan, an increase of 135.5 billion yuan year-on-year and 566.1 billion yuan more than November 2025[2] - December saw a strong increase in deposits, totaling 1.68 trillion yuan, which was 3.08 trillion yuan more than the same month last year, driven mainly by a rise in household deposits of 2.58 trillion yuan[2] Monetary Supply and Policy - M2 growth in December was 8.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from November, while M1 growth was 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates on January 15, 2026, indicating potential for further monetary easing[2] Corporate and Household Loan Dynamics - New corporate loans in December were robust at 1.07 trillion yuan, with short-term loans and bills accounting for 617.7 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans for 340 billion yuan[2] - Household loans continued to show weakness, with a decrease of 916 billion yuan in December, marking a trend of declining household loan demand over the past three months[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing complexity in international relations[2]