白糖：先抑后扬关注天气风险

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in 2026, with the weather conditions in the third quarter being the key factor for the market turnaround [170]. - The global sugar supply is relatively sufficient in the 2025/2026 season, but there are uncertainties in the 2026/2027 season due to potential weather risks [8][11][79][93]. - The sugar - alcohol price ratio is an important factor affecting sugar prices. When the ratio is high, sugar supply increases and prices tend to fall; when it is low, sugar prices have more upward momentum [47]. Summary by Related Catalogs 25/26 Quarter Brazil Continues to Have a Bumper Harvest - As of the first half of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. Although the sugarcane crushing volume decreased due to lower yields, the high sugar - making ratio led to high sugar production [8]. - In 2025, the rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil was very low in the first quarter, a critical growth period for sugarcane. The rainfall from January to March was the third - lowest since 2010, similar to 2014, 2021, and 2024. It is estimated that the sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region in the 2025/2026 season will be 72 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [15][16][26]. - Despite the decline in yield, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/2026 season will remain above 40 million tons, mainly because the sugar - making ratio of sugar mills is relatively high [25]. 25/26 Quarter Brazil's Sugar - Making Ratio Remains High - The sugar - alcohol price difference in Brazil peaked at the end of 2023 and then declined. In most of 2025, the difference was at a relatively high level, so sugar mills chose to maximize sugar production [33]. - As of the end of November 2025, the cumulative ethanol production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was 29.534 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.43%. The alcohol - oil price ratio increased year - on - year but remained at a historically low level and below 0.7, which is beneficial for ethanol consumption [33]. - The sugar - alcohol price ratio has returned to the bottom of the previous oscillation range, and the negative impact has been digested [45]. Brazil: Export Decline, Inventory Increase - From January to December 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 33.8728 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.67‰ [52]. - Due to lower yields and slower early - stage crushing progress, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year from April to August and was at the lowest level in recent years. However, with the increase in sugar - making ratio and production, and the decrease in exports, the inventory began to increase from September. As of November 30, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region was 10.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. Brazil: Pay Attention to Weather Risks - The market's focus has shifted to the production forecast for the next season. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Brazil entered the rainy season, but the rainfall was not ideal in October and November. However, the rainfall in December was abundant, alleviating the previous drought [59][62]. - As the sugar - alcohol price difference has converged, it is likely that Brazilian sugar mills will reduce the sugar - making ratio in 2026 [62]. Brazil: Medium - Term Weather Forecast - Using the European Meteorological Center's ensemble forecast data product, it is predicted that the rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first quarter of 2026 will be less than in previous years, which is not conducive to sugarcane growth [67]. India: Expected Significant Increase in Sugar Production in the 25/26 Season - In the 25/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to be good, with a high probability of a bumper harvest. The sugarcane planting area is expected to be 5.85 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 8.95% [79]. - In 2025, India had abundant rainfall, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth. It is expected that the yield per unit area will increase significantly year - on - year. There were also fewer pests and diseases, which helped increase production [79]. - As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/2026 season was 11.897 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25% [85]. Thailand: Expected Slight Increase in Sugar Production in the 25/26 Season - Affected by the decline in international sugar prices, the sugarcane purchase price in Thailand in the 25/26 season has been adjusted downward. However, due to other incentive policies, farmers' enthusiasm for planting sugarcane has been guaranteed [90]. - The Thai government has introduced a differential subsidy mechanism, and sugar mills meeting specific environmental protection standards will enjoy tax incentives. It is expected that the sugarcane planting area in Thailand in the 2025/2026 season will be 1.68 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 8% [90]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Thailand's sugarcane production in the 2025/2026 season to be 96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%, and sugar production to be 10.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The Thai Sugar Company expects sugar production to be 10.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.58% [93]. Pay Attention to Weather Risks in the Northern Hemisphere in the Third Quarter - The main focus of the sugar market this year is the rainfall in the northern hemisphere in the third quarter. The probability of an El Niño event occurring in the third quarter is increasing, which may lead to reduced rainfall in the rainy season in the northern hemisphere and potential collective production cuts in the 2026/2027 season in China, India, and Thailand [104]. - According to the European Meteorological Center's ensemble forecast data product, the rainfall in India and Thailand in the second quarter is expected to be lower than the annual average, indicating a risk of drought [104]. China's Sugar Market - In the 2024/2025 season, China's total sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 682,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90% [114]. - In the 2024/2025 season, the sugarcane yield per unit area in Guangxi decreased year - on - year, but due to the increase in planting area and sugar extraction rate, sugar production increased year - on - year. In 2025, the import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly, and the market share of domestic sugar increased. The early - stage sales rhythm was fast, but the later rhythm slowed down, and the ending inventory increased year - on - year [114]. - In 2025, China's sugar imports first decreased and then increased. As of the end of November 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.3416 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 376,400 tons, an increase of 9.49%. The import volume of syrup decreased significantly year - on - year [123]. Guangxi - In 2025, the rainfall in Guangxi was uneven, with drought and floods coexisting. The rainfall from January to April was very low, but the drought in the first quarter had limited impact on sugarcane because it was in the emergence stage. The heavy rainfall in May effectively alleviated the drought [131][133][136]. - After April, the average monthly temperature in Guangxi rose above 22°C, forming a situation of simultaneous heat and rain, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth. After mid - September, the rainfall decreased significantly, and sugarcane growth slowed down. The rainfall from July to September, especially in September, is the key factor determining the final plant height and yield per unit area of sugarcane [141]. - In 2025, the rainfall in September and October was sufficient, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth, and it is expected that the yield per unit area will remain at a high level [145]. - The sugarcane vegetation index in Guangxi increased year - on - year, indicating good growth and an expected increase in yield per unit area [158]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the main trading point for Zhengzhou sugar futures is the production forecast for the 2026/2027 season. The probability of an El Niño event occurring in the third quarter of 2026 is increasing, which may lead to drought in the sugarcane - growing areas in Guangxi and potential production cuts [168].