家庭资配视角：日本存款也搬家了吗？

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating that the sector is expected to outperform the market benchmark in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The core insight of the report is that the allocation of household assets in Japan is primarily influenced by the risk-return ratio. Even with declining deposit rates, the proportion of cash and deposits in household asset allocation tends to increase when risk aversion rises. There is no systemic shift of deposits towards riskier assets observed in the long term [1][10][16]. Summary by Sections Household Asset Allocation - The report examines the changes in household asset allocation in Japan since 1990, highlighting that the core factor influencing this allocation is the risk-return ratio. When risk aversion increases, the proportion of cash and deposits rises despite falling interest rates [1][10]. - The report suggests that household wealth allocation behavior aligns with the "Merton Rule," where the proportion of risk assets depends on expected returns, excess returns over risk-free rates, risk levels, and the household's risk aversion coefficient [2][12]. Financial Asset Flow and Structure - From a short-term perspective, the net flow of equity and fund investments is closely correlated with stock market performance. Positive net inflows occur during strong market performance, while negative outflows happen during weak performance [3][13]. - Long-term observations show that from 1994 to 2002, the proportion of deposits and cash increased from 49% to 54%, despite a shift in the structure of deposits where time deposits saw negative net flows while demand deposits increased [14][15]. Investment Outlook for 2026 - The report anticipates that high real interest rates will continue to suppress credit demand from private enterprises and retail sectors, with local state-owned enterprises expected to drive growth due to increased investment in larger provinces as per the "14th Five-Year Plan" [26]. - It is expected that there will be a significant interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2026, which may improve bank interest margins in the latter half of the year [26].