台积电25Q4跟踪报告：26年资本开支指引大超预期，上修24-29年AI芯片增速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly for TSMC, with expectations of strong revenue growth and profitability in the coming years [4][23]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, exceeding guidance, with a year-over-year growth of 25.5% and a gross margin of 62.3% [1][19]. - The company anticipates Q1 2026 revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 38.6% [3][23]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced process technologies [4][25]. - The AI market is expected to drive substantial growth, with AI accelerator revenue projected to account for 15% of total revenue in 2025 [4][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue was $33.73 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3%, driven by improved capacity utilization and cost optimization [1][19]. - The company reported a net profit of $16.37 billion for Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 34.98% [1][19]. - For the full year 2025, TSMC's revenue was $122 billion, reflecting a 35.9% year-over-year growth [1][22]. Advanced Technology and Market Segmentation - Advanced process technologies (3nm, 5nm, and 7nm) accounted for 77% of TSMC's revenue, with 3nm technology representing 28% [2][20]. - The high-performance computing (HPC) segment generated $18.55 billion in revenue, while smartphone revenue was $10.79 billion [2][20]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Projections - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was $40.9 billion, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced process technologies [4][25]. - The company has raised its CAGR forecast for AI-related revenue from 2024 to 2029 to 55%-59% [4][26]. Future Outlook - TSMC expects Q1 2026 gross margin to be between 63% and 65%, with potential dilution from overseas expansion and new technology ramp-up [3][24]. - The company plans to enhance production efficiency and expand capacity to meet growing demand, particularly in AI and HPC sectors [26][27].