建材策略：铁?产量下降，炉料表现承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", with some varieties having specific outlooks like "Oscillation with a slight upward trend" for coking coal. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The off - season fundamentals are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. Steel enterprise复产 in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and the furnace charge price has the expectation of rising from a low level, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory continues to accumulate, there are disturbance expectations on the supply side, and the resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand sides need verification, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. [2][8] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel is low, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption keeps increasing, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to oscillate. [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow coking coal. [3][11] - Coking coal: As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum. [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price will mainly run around the cost valuation. [3][15] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the ferrosilicon market has both weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector. [3][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. [3][13] - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity de - stocking. [3][13] 3.5 Individual Varieties - Steel products: The demand still has resilience, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. Steel mills still have room for复产, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure on the steel side. The fundamentals have limited highlights. With steel mill复产 and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures price will oscillate in a wide range. [8] - Iron ore: The hot metal production decreases month - on - month, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The port inventory is rising, the supply side has disturbance expectations, and the demand side is supported by hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [8] - Scrap steel: The arrival volume increases slightly, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces reaches a new high. The supply is low, the demand is supported, and the spot price is expected to oscillate. [10] - Coke: The hot metal production declines, and restocking continues. The cost side has strong support, and the fundamentals continue to improve. The futures price is expected to follow coking coal. [11] - Coking coal: The coking enterprises restock well, and the coal mine inventory decreases. The supply - demand pattern is gradually optimizing, and the futures and spot prices have upward momentum. [12] - Glass: The spot production and sales weaken, and a negative feedback between futures and spot is approaching. The current supply - demand is in surplus, and the price trend depends on whether there is more cold repair before the end of the year. [13] - Soda ash: The warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the spot price oscillates at a low level. The overall supply - demand is in surplus, oscillating in the short term and the price center will decline in the long term. [13] - Manganese silicon: The de - stocking pressure remains high, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price will mainly run around the cost valuation. [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the cost support still exists. The market has both weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector. [17] 3.6 Index Information - On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.39%, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.63%, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.35%. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.38% on the day, increased by 0.06% in the past 5 days, increased by 4.68% in the past month, and increased by 2.21% since the beginning of the year. [102][104]