贵属策略报：关税预期降温引发回撤，?银?位波动加剧

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver experienced a significant correction after reaching a new historical high, mainly due to the cooling of tariff expectations, concentrated profit - taking, and increased volatility. Gold also declined but to a limited extent, with its safe - haven and monetary attributes remaining resilient [1][3]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the decline in silver volatility and the repair of the position structure, while being vigilant about the amplified technical volatility under high - level oscillations. In the medium term, fundamentals and macro - logic will be the main drivers, and the correction is more conducive to the re - layout of long - term funds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - US senior officials met with Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers, but the communication failed to calm Trump's public statement about "taking over Greenland", increasing concerns about long - term geopolitical tensions between Copenhagen and Washington and raising the geopolitical uncertainty premium [2]. - Trump said the president "should have some say in Fed policy" and emphasized that he has no plan to replace Fed Chairman Powell [2]. - US Senate Republicans rejected a bill to limit the president's further military actions against Venezuela without congressional authorization [2]. Price Logic - Gold: In the overall correction of precious metals, gold was relatively stable. Although the suspension of tariffs in the US eased short - term policy disturbances, disputes over the Fed's independence, the "sell the US" narrative, and geopolitical uncertainties still provided medium - term support for gold. The decline in gold prices was more of a technical adjustment under the repair of risk appetite and did not change its configuration value as a hedging asset [3]. - Silver: The previous rise of silver was driven by tariff expectations, tight spot supply, and capital sentiment, with a growth rate significantly faster than the digestion ability of fundamentals. After the cooling of tariff expectations, concentrated profit - taking and a high - volatility environment led to a rapid price decline. In the medium term, supply constraints, industrial demand (such as photovoltaics), and the spill - over effect of gold still exist, but in the short term, time or price correction is needed to digest the over - crowded trading structure [3]. Market Indexes - Commodity Indexes: The commodity index was 2448.62, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index was 2809.04, up 1.08%; the industrial products index was 2362.72, up 0.62%; the PPI commodity index was 1466.29, up 0.70% [45]. - Precious Metals Index: On January 14, 2026, the precious metals index was 4368.49, with a daily increase of 3.46%, a 5 - day increase of 9.90%, a 1 - month increase of 19.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.23% [46].