关税预期有所落空，铂钯维持宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillating upwards [2] Core Viewpoints - The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and platinum and palladium prices are maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The prices of GFEX platinum and palladium main contracts dropped on January 15, with platinum down 4.11% and palladium down 4.62% [1] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices may continue to oscillate widely in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa faces risks, while demand in various fields is expanding, and the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] - The short - term palladium price may also oscillate widely. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Summary by Related Aspects Platinum - Current Situation: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram, down 4.11% [1] - Short - term Outlook: Concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks will keep the price in a wide - range oscillation. Investors are advised to manage risks and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [1] - Long - term Outlook: South Africa, the main supplier, faces power supply and extreme weather risks. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] Palladium - Current Situation: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 478.6 yuan/gram, down 4.62% [1] - Short - term Outlook: The price may oscillate widely. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [2] - Long - term Outlook: Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Commodity Index (January 15, 2026) - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index was 2439.09, down 0.39%; the commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%; the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35% [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index (January 15, 2026) - The index value was 2854.45, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.13%, a 1 - month increase of 12.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.27% [49]