中信期货晨报20260116：货币政策结构性降息，大类资产震荡调整-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - environment, consumption supports the economy, inflation is falling, and the Fed maintains a wait - and - see stance. In the US, the economy is in a "light to moderate" expansion, employment is stable, price pressure is generally easing, and retail sales show a "K - shaped" consumption pattern. The Fed is likely to wait for more clear guidance on inflation and financial conditions [9]. - In the domestic macro - environment, incremental policies are continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The central bank conducts a 9000 - billion - yuan 6 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operation, increasing the amount by 300 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount. The central bank also optimizes structural monetary policy tools, cuts the interest rate by 25bp, and increases the quota of related tools [9]. - At the level of major asset classes, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold on a monthly basis. For precious metals, silver has high short - term volatility and is recommended to be standard - allocated in the short term, and can be overweighted at low prices after volatility stabilizes [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asset Price Performance 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 futures: The current price is 4746.6, with a daily increase of 0.09, a weekly increase of 0.06, a monthly increase of 3.19, a quarterly increase of 3.19, and an annual increase of 3.19 [2]. - SSE 50 futures: The current price is 3108, with a daily decrease of 0.36, a weekly decrease of 0.85, a monthly increase of 2.74, a quarterly increase of 2.74, and an annual increase of 2.74 [2]. - CSI 500 futures: The current price is 8206.8, with a daily increase of 0.03, a weekly increase of 2.1, a monthly increase of 11.46, a quarterly increase of 11.46, and an annual increase of 11.46 [2]. - CSI 1000 futures: The current price is 8195.4, with a daily increase of 0, a weekly increase of 1.83, a monthly increase of 10.21, a quarterly increase of 10.21, and an annual increase of 10.21 [2]. 3.1.2 Bond Futures - 2 - year bond futures: The current price is 102.376, with a daily increase of 0.03, a weekly increase of 0.04, a monthly decrease of 0.08, a quarterly decrease of 0.08, and an annual decrease of 0.08 [2]. - 5 - year bond futures: The current price is 105.76, with a daily increase of 0.09, a weekly increase of 0.18, and no change in monthly, quarterly, and annual terms [2]. - 10 - year bond futures: The current price is 108.035, with a daily increase of 0.12, a weekly increase of 0.25, a monthly increase of 0.16, a quarterly increase of 0.16, and an annual increase of 0.16 [2]. - 30 - year bond futures: The current price is 111.19, with a daily decrease of 0.02, a weekly increase of 0.29, a monthly decrease of 0.2, a quarterly decrease of 0.2, and an annual decrease of 0.2 [2]. 3.1.3 Foreign Exchange - US dollar index: The current price is 99.0753, with a daily decrease of 0.11, a weekly decrease of 0.06, a monthly increase of 0.82, a quarterly increase of 0.82, and an annual increase of 0.82 [2]. - US dollar central parity rate (pips): The current price is 6.9729, with a daily decrease of 48, a weekly decrease of 54, a monthly decrease of 161, a quarterly decrease of 161, and an annual decrease of 161 [2]. 3.1.4 Interest Rates - 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate (bp): The current price is 1.5668, with a daily increase of 1.94, a weekly increase of 9.41, a monthly decrease of 41.53, a quarterly decrease of 41.53, and an annual decrease of 41.53 [2]. - 10 - year Chinese government bond yield (bp): The current price is 1.8494, with a daily decrease of 0.25, a weekly decrease of 2.88, a monthly increase of 0.21, a quarterly increase of 0.21, and an annual increase of 0.21 [2]. - 10 - year US Treasury yield (bp): The current price is 4.15, with a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 3 [2]. - 10 - year US Treasury 10Y - 2Y spread (bp): The current price is 0.64, with a daily decrease of 1, no change weekly, a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 7 [2]. - 10 - year break - even inflation rate (bp): The current price is 1.86, with a daily decrease of 2, a weekly decrease of 4, a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 7 [2]. 3.1.5 Domestic Commodities - Shipping: The current price of container shipping to Europe is 1312.77, with a daily decrease of 2.27%, a weekly decrease of 6.01%, a monthly decrease of 13.74%, and the same quarterly and annual decreases [5]. - Precious metals: Gold is at 1038.23, with a daily decrease of 0.52%, a weekly increase of 2.9%, a monthly increase of 5.96%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; silver is at 22657.59, with a daily decrease of 0.41%, a weekly increase of 20.98%, a monthly increase of 32.67%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [5]. - Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum is at 24383.9, with a daily decrease of 0.88%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 6.24%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; tin is at 432819.23, with a daily increase of 4.8%, a weekly increase of 22.71%, a monthly increase of 33.77%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [5]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is at 447.52, with a daily decrease of 0.16%, a weekly increase of 2.99%, a monthly increase of 3.38%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; fuel oil is at 2569.23, with a daily decrease of 0.24%, a weekly increase of 2.76%, a monthly increase of 4.84%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [5]. 3.1.6 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 61.02, with a daily increase of 0.15%, a weekly increase of 3.81%, a monthly increase of 6.29%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; ICE Brent crude oil is at 65.39, with a daily decrease of 0.12%, a weekly increase of 3.76%, a monthly increase of 7.36%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [8]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold is at 4633.9, with a daily increase of 0.76%, a weekly increase of 2.56%, a monthly increase of 6.97%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; COMEX silver is at 93.185, with a daily increase of 7.93%, a weekly increase of 16.79%, a monthly increase of 31.28%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [8]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME aluminum is at 13188.5, with a daily increase of 0.19%, a weekly increase of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 5.54%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; LME tin is at 53462, with a daily increase of 7.94%, a weekly increase of 17.34%, a monthly increase of 32.1%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [8]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans are at 1042.5, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a weekly decrease of 1.91%, a monthly decrease of 0.45%, and the same quarterly and annual decreases; CBOT corn is at 422.25, with a daily increase of 0.6%, a weekly decrease of 5.17%, a monthly decrease of 4.25%, and the same quarterly and annual decreases [8]. 3.2 Sector Analysis 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Double - factor boost to the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [10]. - Stock index options: Option covered writing to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the options market [10]. - Bond futures: The sentiment of long - term bonds is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [10]. - Silver: The spot market is structurally tight, sensitive to liquidity, and driven by the pro - cyclical factor. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [10]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Near - month shipments before the Spring Festival support the price, and the risk of resuming flights in the far - month needs attention. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the shipping company's resumption plan in 2026, the signing of long - term contracts at the end of the year, and the support of shippers' shipments before the Spring Festival [10]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Coking coal: The supply - demand structure has improved, and the futures and spot prices have stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are coal mine复产, Mongolian coal imports, and replenishment by middle and downstream enterprises [10]. - Glass: Production has decreased month - on - month, and demand has not improved. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the spot sales - to - production ratio [10]. - Soda ash: Supply has increased significantly, and supply still exceeds demand. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [10]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [10]. - Aluminum: The Mozal aluminum plant faces shutdown, and the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [10]. - Tin: Downstream demand has strong resilience, and the tin price fluctuates strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the expectation of the resumption of production in Wa State and the change in demand improvement expectation [10]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals Sector - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and the risk of Iran needs attention. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [12]. - LPG: The strong reality is weakening, and the implementation of downstream load reduction needs attention. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [12]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price fluctuates in an over - valued range. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, and the key points to watch are sanctions and supply disruptions [12]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Corn/starch: As the Spring Festival approaches, inventory replenishment boosts the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - environment, and weather [12]. - Live pigs: There is second - fattening in the north, and the pig price rises in the north and falls in the south. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [12]. - Natural rubber: It fluctuates widely, and the trend remains unchanged. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the weather in the producing areas, raw material prices, and macro - changes [12].