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Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the agricultural market is characterized by a mix of supply - and - demand factors, with different commodities showing various trends. Some commodities are expected to be bullish in the short - to - medium term, while others face downward pressure or are in a state of consolidation. The report suggests different investment strategies for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [1][2][7]. Summary by Commodity 1. Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Supply increases while demand weakens, and palm oil leads the decline in the oils and fats market. - Logic: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan and raises palm oil export taxes. In the domestic soybean market, 1.13 million tons of imported soybeans were auctioned on January 13th with a 100% transaction rate. For rapeseed oil, there are ongoing Sino - Canadian talks on rapeseed trade, and overseas rapeseed production is expected to be high in the long run. - Outlook: Soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate, while rapeseed oil will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a correction and a long - palm oil short - rapeseed oil arbitrage strategy [1][6][7]. 2. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: Rapeseed meal's low points on the futures market continue to be refreshed, and soybean meal's support at previous lows needs attention. - Logic: Internationally, the January supply - demand report is bearish for US soybeans, but Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. Domestically, the auction of soybeans by the State Reserve was successful, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is accumulating. - Outlook: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal futures will fluctuate, and rapeseed meal will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to customs inspection policies and the progress of China's soybean purchases [9][10]. 3. Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: As the Chinese New Year approaches, restocking boosts prices. - Logic: The corn market is in a tight - balance state, with farmers reluctant to sell, slow import of grains, and tight railway transportation. Downstream deep - processing enterprises are restocking. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term [12][13]. 4. Hogs - Viewpoint: Second - fattening occurs in the north, leading to a rise in northern hog prices and a decline in southern prices. - Logic: In the short term, the supply pressure is small at the beginning of January, but there may be concentrated pre - holiday slaughter. In the long term, sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate. Near - term contracts may fluctuate weakly, while long - term contracts can be considered for long - positions at low prices with caution [14]. 5. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: It shows wide - range fluctuations, and the trend remains unchanged. - Logic: Rubber prices were slightly affected by the decline in commodities but did not break through the support level. The rise is mainly driven by capital rotation. The supply is increasing seasonally overseas, and the demand is weak after the price increase. - Outlook: It is considered bullish in the short term due to strong capital sentiment [16][18]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: It slightly declines and maintains high - level fluctuations. - Logic: The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently. - Outlook: It will fluctuate strongly in the medium term, although there is short - term pressure [19][20]. 7. Cotton - Viewpoint: The cotton price corrects and continues to consolidate. - Logic: The long - term bullish drivers are the "tight - balance" in 2025/26 and the expected reduction in planting area in 2026. Currently, it is in an adjustment phase due to the exhaustion of short - term positive factors. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the long term. A strategy of buying at low prices during corrections is recommended [20][21]. 8. Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price fluctuates within a narrow range. - Logic: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic market has increased supply. - Outlook: It will fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term. A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [21]. 9. Pulp - Viewpoint: The spot price of hardwood pulp turns down, increasing fundamental concerns. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is in line with market expectations and seasonal patterns. There are both bullish factors (higher import costs) and bearish factors (difficult cost transfer and seasonal demand decline). - Outlook: It will fluctuate. The bottom is supported by macro - atmosphere and import price increases, while the upside is limited by weak demand and high liquidity [22][23]. 10. Offset Paper - Viewpoint: It fluctuates weakly. - Logic: The market is generally stable, with some production lines planning to resume production. There is inventory pressure on paper mills, and downstream orders are limited. The addition of futures warehouse receipts suppresses the upward space. - Outlook: It may face pressure in the second half of the month, and the risk of correction should be noted [24]. 11. Logs - Viewpoint: Negative factors are digested, and logs fluctuate strongly. - Logic: The fundamentals are improving marginally, with a decrease in negative factors in the delivery process and a short - term supply shortage in the Jiangsu market. - Outlook: It will fluctuate strongly in the short term. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 810 yuan per cubic meter [25]. Commodity Index - On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was 2439.09, down 0.39%. The commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%, and the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35%. The agricultural product index was 941.54, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a 5 - day decline of 0.21%, a 1 - month increase of 2.22%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.91% [183][185].