国新国证期货早报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - On January 15, 2026, A-share market had mixed performance: Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.33% to 4112.60 points; Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to 14306.73 points; ChiNext Index rose 0.56% to 3367.91 points. The trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was close to 3 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of over 1 trillion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index had a narrow - range fluctuation on January 15, closing at 4751.43, up 9.5 points [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke weighted index on January 15 had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1746.4, down 1.9 points. Coking coal weighted index trended weaker, closing at 1191.6 yuan, down 11.6 points [2][3]. - Coke's transaction price rose sporadically, with average coking profit and slightly increased daily production. Coke inventory remained almost unchanged. Coking coal: Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1586 vehicles. Coking coal mine output decreased slightly, and the mine resumption after New Year's Day was good. The overall carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, but the demand for raw materials was at a low - season level [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Wednesday and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng Sugar 2605 contract on January 15 oscillated downward. At night, it had a narrow - range fluctuation and closed slightly lower [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Affected by the high import volume in December 2025 and the decline of oil prices, Shanghai rubber futures on January 15 oscillated downward. In 2025, China imported 852.5 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 16.7% increase from 2024 [4]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 15, CBOT soybean futures closed up. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.7612 billion tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous year. Domestically, on January 15, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2740 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. High inventory restricts the price increase space [5]. 2.5 Live Hogs - On January 15, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11950 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Current market supply is tight, but there is still supply pressure before the Spring Festival. Consumption demand lacks holiday support [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On January 15, palm oil futures prices dropped significantly due to the news of Indonesia canceling B50 biodiesel in 2026. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - On January 15, Shanghai copper futures had a lower closing price. The market is affected by factors such as the cancellation of key mineral tariffs in the US, a stronger US dollar, and weak domestic demand. Supply may decrease, but inventory has increased significantly [5]. 2.8 Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14720 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased, and downstream mills purchase on a need - to - use basis [5]. 2.9 Logs - On January 15, the main log 2603 contract closed at 780.5. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter. Follow - up attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [6]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On January 15, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated downward, down 1.03% to 813 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, while port inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11 Asphalt - On January 15, the main asphalt 2603 contract closed down slightly, down 0.06% to 3167 yuan. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is oscillating [6]. 2.12 Steel - On January 15, rb2605 closed at 3160 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The steel market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and steel prices may oscillate weakly [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On January 15, ao2605 closed at 2789 yuan/ton. Some domestic alumina plants are under maintenance, but production capacity is still high, and supply pressure persists. The market has a short - term inventory accumulation trend [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 15, al2603 closed at 24375 yuan/ton. Demand is seasonally weak, but low raw material inventory of downstream manufacturers may trigger restocking demand. However, inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand may lead to a price decline [6]. 3. Other Information - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [6].