金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost - end, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Main Contract: On January 15, the PTA main futures contract TA605 fell 1.90%, and the basis strengthened to - 65 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The market price of PTA in East China today is 5047 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end Brent crude oil dropped back to around $64/barrel after a sharp rise over the weekend. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 76.76% compared to the previous working day. A new materials unit reduced its load for maintenance this week, and a Xin凤鸣 unit restarted. The weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.62 days, a 0.02 - day increase from the previous period [3]. - Main Force Movements: There is a divergence between long and short main forces [3]. - Trend Expectation: The current PTA processing fee is high, but there are no plans to further increase the load of PTA plants. The terminal weaving inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the situation of polyester factories taking early holidays before the Spring Festival. It is expected that terminal demand will weaken before the end of January. The market is unanimously bullish on upstream PX, and the PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost - end [3]. MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Main Contract: On January 15, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 1.11%, and the basis weakened to - 161 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 3677 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end coal price is under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 72.8 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons from the previous period [4]. - Main Force Movements: Short - side main forces increased their positions [4]. - Trend Expectation: The recent arrivals of ethylene glycol are still relatively high, and the inventory accumulation expectation has not been reversed. There are maintenance plans for multiple overseas units in the future, but the downstream polyester start - up is expected to decline. The ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation in the short term [4].