格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biofuel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices, but currently, it's hard to form a trending direction. In the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to adopt a long - position mindset of buying on dips for soybean and palm oil, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength[2]. - For the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, the 05 contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term with intraday trading, and short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts[4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Agricultural, Livestock, and Edible Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 15th, under the double negative factors of Malaysia lowering the export tariff of crude palm oil in February and the easing of the Iranian crisis with a drop in international crude oil prices, palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,938 yuan/ton, down 0.77% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 3,882 lots. The main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 8,578 yuan/ton, down 1.94% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,279 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 8,828 yuan/ton, down 1.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 12,208 lots[1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On January 15th, NYMEX crude oil futures fell sharply, ending a five - day rally, with the 2 - month crude oil futures contract down 2.83 dollars or 4.6%, settling at 59.19 dollars per barrel[1]. - Discussions on canola seeds between Beijing and Canada have achieved results, and negotiations are still ongoing[1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal, and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons[1]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% blending ratio. However, the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026[1][2]. - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil[1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%[1]. - From January 1st to 10th, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase from 390,442 tons in the same period of December, but exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons to 18,000 tons[1]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a weekly decrease of 104,800 tons, a 4.67% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.76% year - on - year increase[2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation has pressured international crude oil prices, but the US government's approval of the 2026 biofuel quota has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil prices initially fell but recovered due to the sharp rise in US soybean oil[2]. - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Customs has tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the auction of domestic old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the Spring Festival stocking is still ongoing. For palm oil, Indonesia's cancellation of the B50 plan in 2026 has led to a recovery in import profits and inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the discussion on canola seeds has achieved results, but short - selling funds entered the market, and then the price rebounded at night[2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions can be held for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract[2]. - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the spread between soybean and palm oil[2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 15th, the market basically digested the negative news of Canadian rapeseed's return to the Chinese market. With weak oil and strong meal, the near - month contracts of the two - meal oscillated, and the far - month contracts were bearish. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,740 yuan/ton, down 0.40% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 6,160 lots[2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3,630 - 3,790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton, mostly at a premium[3]. - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Global soybean production is raised by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons, mainly due to increased production in Brazil and the US[3]. - As of January 9th, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, compared with 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39%[3]. - As of December 30th, the 2025/26 Argentine soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions[3]. - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 were estimated to be 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. The estimated soybean exports in January 2026 are 2.4 million tons, a 114% year - on - year increase, and the 2026 exports are expected to reach a record 112 million tons[3]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total domestic inventory of imported soybeans was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons from the previous week[3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US new - year biofuel usage plan has boosted the price of US soybeans. - Domestically, the spot price of the oil mill is stable, and the near - month basis is strong. Before the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to rise. The negotiation on reducing the Canadian rapeseed tariff is ongoing and effective, and there are rumors of opening the import of Canadian rapeseed meal, which suppresses the futures market[4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - The 05 contracts of the two - meal are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term, with intraday trading. Short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There is no arbitrage strategy for now[4].