金信期货日刊-20260116

Report Overview - Report Title: Goldtrust Futures Daily - Report Date: January 16, 2026 - Report Author: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - Methanol futures prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term and range-bound in the medium term, with inventory reduction, import volume, and downstream开工 being the three key variables [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated and declined, and slightly rebounded at the end of the session. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index performed better. The 5 - minute - level rebound is not over, and there may be an adjustment requirement tomorrow morning. It should be treated as a volatile market with high - selling and low - buying [8]. - Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment, and the operation should be mainly long [10]. - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough and can be treated as a volatile market recently [12]. - Glass has weakened with consecutive negative daily - level lines, and the short - term thinking has turned to a volatile and bearish one [16]. - Paper pulp has entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily declining. It should be treated as volatile and bearish [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Methanol Market 3.1.1 Reasons for Price Decline - Demand is in the off - season, and some downstream MTO devices plan to stop or reduce production due to compressed profits, resulting in weak procurement willingness [3]. - High inventory suppresses prices, with port inventory reaching about 153.72 tons in early January and large shipment pressure on inland factories [3]. - There is a callback in capital sentiment, as the chemical sector has collectively corrected after a rise, and capital has taken profits, intensifying short - term fluctuations [3]. 3.1.2 Future Trend Judgment - Short - term (1 - 2 weeks): There is support at 2250 - 2260 yuan/ton (MA10 and the previous intensive trading area) and resistance at 2320 yuan/ton (the upper Bollinger Band). If the port inventory reduction accelerates, the price may rebound due to a significant reduction in Iranian imports in January (expected to drop from 135 tons to 78 tons) and stable coal prices [4]. 3.1.3 Trading Strategy - The strategy is to try to go long on dips, operate with a light position, and take profits in batches [6]. 3.2 Other Market Technical Analysis 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated and declined, and slightly rebounded at the end. The 5 - minute - level rebound is not over, and there may be an adjustment requirement tomorrow morning. It should be treated as a volatile market with high - selling and low - buying [8]. 3.2.2 Gold - Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment, and the operation should be mainly long [10]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough and can be treated as a volatile market recently [12]. 3.2.4 Glass - Technically, the daily - level lines have been negative consecutively, and the short - term thinking has turned to a volatile and bearish one. The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and the inventory has also been reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [16][17]. 3.2.5 Paper Pulp - Paper pulp has entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily declining. From a fundamental perspective, recent changes include the halt of the further rise of broad - leaf pulp (maintaining around 4700), the decline of the basis of most softwood pulp, and the large - scale registration of pulp warehouse receipts. It should be treated as volatile and bearish [22].