原油：短期观望，谨防地缘风险反复，进口无利可图，运费高企抵消品质溢价-4.82

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - The report suggests short - term observation of crude oil and warns of the recurrence of geopolitical risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 02 contract dropped $2.83, a decline of 4.56%, closing at $59.19 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures 03 contract fell $2.76, a decrease of 4.15%, at $63.76 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures closed down $10.60, a 2.34% drop, at 441.80 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties all have a closed arbitrage state, with respective arbitrage values of -$3.78, -$4.82, -$5.95, -$6.65, and -$10.4 per barrel due to factors like high freight, low cracking profit, weak demand, and lack of competitiveness [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has a closed arbitrage state with an arbitrage value of -$1.95 per barrel due to limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space; Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals have an open arbitrage state, with values of $2.22, $0.6, and $26.19 per barrel respectively, due to arbitrage opportunities, improved cost - effectiveness, and strong demand [2] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have an open arbitrage state, with values of $2.1, $2.5, and $2.45 per barrel respectively, due to good cracking profit and strong demand; Azeri Light has a closed arbitrage state with a value of -$0.36 per barrel because of environmental policy suppression [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all have a closed arbitrage state, with values of -$24.36, -$23.81, and -$27.19 per barrel respectively, due to low demand and structural over - supply [4] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford all have a closed arbitrage state, with values of -$12.57, -$14.01, -$21.32, and -$11.71 per barrel respectively, due to fierce competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [5] Key Market News - Iraq opposes the use of its territory as a springboard for attacks on Iran [5] - The US Treasury Department announced new sanctions against Iran [6] - At least one US aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East [7] - Netanyahu asked Trump to postpone the strike on Iran [9] - Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and keeps all options open [9] - Trump informed Iran that he has no intention to attack and asked for restraint [9] - Venezuela's oil production reached 1.2 million barrels per day in December [9] - Trump is delaying the decision on striking Iran and is consulting internally and with allies [9] - Venezuela's oil industry has been operating through phone and hand - written reports after a cyber - attack on PDVSA [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]