山金期货黑色板块日报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the steel market, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction of re - loan and rediscount rates boosts market confidence to a certain extent. For both螺纹and热卷, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - line trading and avoid chasing up or selling down. For iron ore, although the short - term increase in iron water production is unexpected, it is likely a short - term phenomenon, and long positions can continue to be held for mid - line trading [2][4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 螺纹 and 热卷 - Supply and Demand: This week,螺纹production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand for螺纹and five major steel products rebounded. However, as the market is in the off - season, the improvement in demand may be due to year - end rush work and may not be sustainable. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline [2] - Price and Spread: The closing prices of螺纹and热卷futures and spot prices showed different changes. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also fluctuated. For example, the螺纹steel main contract closing price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day and 0.25% from last week [2] - Production and Inventory: The national building materials steel mill's螺纹production was 190.30 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 million tons (-0.39%). The five - major varieties' social inventory was 866.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.16 million tons (0.13%) [2] - Apparent Demand and Trading Volume: The apparent demand for five major varieties was 826.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29.30 million tons (3.68%). The 7 - day moving average of national construction steel trading volume was 22.68 million tons, down 2.35% from the previous day and 2.18% from last week [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand: The overall production of five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, and the apparent demand rebounded. In the off - season, iron water production is likely to decline seasonally. The short - term increase in iron water production last week is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The improvement in steel apparent demand may be due to year - end rush work [4] - Supply: Global shipments of iron ore have declined, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices. The significant rebound in coking coal and coke prices supports iron ore prices [4] - Price and Spread: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 813 yuan/dry ton, down 0.97% from the previous day. The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 35.5 yuan/dry ton, down 3.5 yuan from the previous day [5] - Inventory and Shipment: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with Australian shipments at 1659.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 39.0 million tons (-2.30%), and Brazilian shipments at 647 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51.5 million tons (-7.37%). Port inventory increased to 16275.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 304.37 million tons (1.91%) [5] 3.3 Industry News - In early January, key steel enterprises produced 1997 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 199.7 million tons, a daily output increase of 21.6% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 248 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% [7] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 53 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was - 7 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 105 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was - 12 yuan/ton [7] - As of the week of January 15,螺纹production and factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand increased.螺纹production was 190.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 million tons (-0.39%);螺纹apparent demand was 190.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.38 million tons (8.79%) [7]