今日早评-20260116

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, including their supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. It offers trading suggestions for some commodities based on these analyses [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity 3.1. Energy Crude Oil - OPEC's December commercial inventory in OECD increased by 4 million barrels to 2.84 billion barrels. The expected demand for OPEC crude in 2026 remains at 43 million barrels per day, an increase of 600,000 barrels per day compared to 2025. US refined oil demand in the four - week period ending January 9 was 1.1% lower than the same period last year. With the reduced expectation of US strikes on Iran, the oil price dropped significantly. The oil market still faces oversupply pressure, and the price is expected to be short - sold in the short term [5]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the report. Coal - For coking coal, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal is 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons. The raw coal inventory is 5.499 million tons, an increase of 765,000 tons. After last week's rebound, the coking coal futures have entered a volatile pattern this week. Without policy intervention, the coal price may remain low before the Spring Festival [1]. 3.2. Metals Iron Ore - From January 5 to January 11, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. The overseas iron ore shipment volume has slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited growth in overseas shipments in the first quarter. The port inventory is under pressure to increase, but the short - term increase in iron water production and steel mills' restocking provide some support for the ore price [3]. Steel - As of the week of January 15, the weekly output of rebar was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons. The apparent demand increased by 153,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. With the approaching cold air, the demand is expected to weaken, but the steel price may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - economic factors and high costs [4]. Aluminum - Starting from April 1, 2026, China will cancel the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products. In the short term, the policy has boosted the aluminum price, but in the long term, it may suppress aluminum demand. The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9]. Gold - Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and concerns about the Fed's independence may weaken. With strong US economic data, the short - term demand for interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward momentum of precious metals has weakened [10]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year. The short - term urgency for interest rate cuts has decreased. Industrial demand supports silver, but the price increase is limited in the short term [1]. 3.3. Chemicals PTA - The social inventory of PTA is 2.8674 million tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.76%. The polyester load is slowly decreasing, and the sharp drop in oil prices has suppressed market sentiment. PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31%. The port inventory decreased by 101,900 tons to 1.4353 million tons. The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6494 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.19%, a decrease of 0.42%. The commercial inventory decreased by 48,000 tons to 695,500 tons. Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 52.3 Thai baht/kg. The domestic rubber production area has stopped harvesting, and the raw material price in Southeast Asia is firm. The social inventory of natural rubber in China has seasonally increased to a neutral level. It is recommended to short - sell or wait and see in the short term [6][7]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% compared to the same period last month. Malaysia has lowered the reference price and tariffs, but strong export data and Indonesia's signal of long - term supply tightening have led to a market expectation of tightening supply. It is recommended to trade in a range in the short term [8]. 3.4. Agriculture Soybean Meal - On January 15, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton. The market has demand, but the willingness to chase high - priced soybeans is weak. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the first quarter. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term [7]. Corn - Not covered in the report. Wheat - Not covered in the report. Livestock - On January 15, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%. The pig price is expected to fluctuate after a short - term increase. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of farmers and the reduction of breeding sows [8]. 3.5. Others Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank has implemented measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the rediscount and re - loan interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small businesses by 50 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be more volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10]. Futures - Not covered comprehensively. Only short - term evaluations of various commodity futures are provided in the report.