结构性降息后，再降息需等待

Financial Data Overview - In December 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 22,075 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6,462 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 18,153 billion yuan[1] - The new RMB loan scale was 9,100 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion yuan, also higher than the market expectation of 6,794 billion yuan[1] Key Observations on December Financial Data - New government bond financing in December 2025 was only 6,833 billion yuan, down 10,733 billion yuan from 17,566 billion yuan in December 2024, which was a major drag on social financing[2] - New loans to the real economy reached 9,804 billion yuan, an increase of 1,402 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the first positive growth since June 2025[2] Loan Trends - New corporate loans in December 2025 were 10,700 billion yuan, the second-highest level for the same period in nearly a decade, following 12,637 billion yuan in 2022[3] - New household loans were -916 billion yuan, with short-term loans at -1,023 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 100 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline but a slower rate compared to previous months[3] Consumer and Business Loan Dynamics - The decline in short-term consumer loans was -1,041 billion yuan, while medium to long-term consumer loans were -1,318 billion yuan, suggesting cautious consumer behavior in housing purchases[4] - The overall corporate financing demand showed a steady recovery, with total financing needs from September to December 2025 reaching 1.64 trillion, 0.56 trillion, 1.27 trillion, and 1.23 trillion yuan respectively, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20,955 billion yuan[5] Monetary Policy Signals - The central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates, bringing the one-year re-lending rate down to 1.25%[8] - Structural monetary tools are being emphasized to enhance credit availability, with an increase in the re-lending quota for small and micro enterprises by 5,000 billion yuan[8] Economic Outlook - The M1 money supply growth rate fell to 3.8% year-on-year, attributed to base effects, despite a strong performance in December 2025[6] - Overall, December's financial data indicates a temporary recovery in demand, with corporate financing willingness remaining strong, while household loan demand shows structural issues but marginal improvement in total[6]