黄金:避险情绪回升,白银:关税预期波动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-16 01:27
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment outlooks: - Positive outlook: Zinc [12], Platinum, Palladium [29], Palm oil, Soybean oil [153] - Neutral outlook: Copper, Lead, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast aluminum alloy, LPG, Propylene, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Pure benzene, Bean meal, Bean one, Corn, Cotton, Egg, Peanut [9][15][18][25][109][140][148][158][161][170][175][182] - Negative outlook: Industrial silicon, Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Caustic soda, Pulp, PVC, Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Offset printing paper, White sugar, Live pig [42][72][76][79][82][87][117][120][122][143][165][178] 2. Core Views - Precious Metals: Gold is influenced by rising risk - aversion sentiment, while silver is affected by tariff expectation fluctuations [6]. - Base Metals: Copper prices are restricted by the strengthening US dollar; zinc is prone to rise and difficult to fall; lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory; tin is consolidating at a high level; aluminum is slightly under pressure; alumina is oscillating downward; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [9][12][15][18][25]. - Energy and Chemicals: For PX, the valuation is following the cost - end correction, and the future supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually; PTA processing fees are at a high level, and attention should be paid to reducing processing fees; MEG has limited downward valuation space [66]. - Agricultural Products: Palm oil is affected by the approaching implementation of the US biofuel policy, and the sentiment in the oil and fat sector has improved; soybean oil's rebound height is limited due to insufficient soybean - related themes; soybean meal requires waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade consultations; corn requires attention to the spot market; white sugar is mainly in a weak operation; cotton continues to be in an adjustment state [153][158][161][165][170]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2602 was 1,035.20, with a daily decline of 0.52%. The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded [6]. - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2602 was 22,713, with a daily decline of 0.41%. Tariff expectation fluctuations have an impact on the price [6]. 3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 102,560, with a daily decline of 1.26%. The strengthening US dollar restricts price increases [9]. - Zinc: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 25,090, with a daily increase of 2.51%. It is prone to rise and difficult to fall [12]. - Lead: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17,550, with a daily increase of 0.95%. The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [15]. - Tin: The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 433, with a daily increase of 4.80%. It is consolidating at a high level [18]. - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,375, with a decrease of 220 compared to the previous day. It is slightly under pressure [25]. - Alumina: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract was 2,789, with a decrease of 11 compared to the previous day. It is oscillating downward [25]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [25]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - PX: The closing price of the main contract was 7,130, with a decline of 1.82%. The valuation is following the cost - end correction, and the future supply - demand is expected to weaken [66]. - PTA: The closing price of the main contract was 5,048, with a decline of 1.33%. The polyester production cut plan has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation intensity [66]. - MEG: The closing price of the main contract was 3,817, with a decline of 1.29%. The valuation has limited downward space [66]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The closing price of the main contract (day session) was 8,578, with a decline of 1.94%. The approaching implementation of the US biofuel policy has improved the sentiment in the oil and fat sector [153]. - Soybean Oil: The closing price of the main contract (day session) was 7,938, with a decline of 0.78%. The rebound height is limited due to insufficient soybean - related themes [153]. - Soybean Meal: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,740, with a decline of 0.33%. Wait for the progress of China - Canada trade consultations [158]. - Corn: The closing price of C2603 was 2,295, with an increase of 0.83%. Pay attention to the spot market [161]. - White Sugar: The futures main contract price was 5,280, with a decline of 19. It is mainly in a weak operation [165]. - Cotton: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,675, with a decline of 0.91%. It continues to be in an adjustment state [170].