国泰君安期货所长早读-20260116

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views of the Report - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The bond market fluctuations are concentrated in the ultra - long - term, and the A - share market is expected to maintain a stable growth trend in 2026. The market sentiment of treasury bond futures remains oscillating and bearish since mid - last year, with short - term resilience and a possible slight recovery in the long - term [7][9]. - Affected by the expected US biodiesel policy, rapeseed oil is expected to shift from a recent weak trend to a wide - range oscillating trend. The valuation of PX has returned with the cost - end adjustment, and the supply is expected to gradually loosen. PTA's polyester production cut plan has increased, and the actual implementation needs attention. MEG's supply pressure has eased, and the short - term is expected to rebound strongly [10][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - Central bank policies: Lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one - year re - loan rate dropping to 1.25%. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [7]. - Market analysis: The bond market fluctuations are concentrated in the ultra - long - term. Treasury bond futures maintain an oscillating and bearish view since mid - last year. Short - term has resilience, and the long - term may have a slight recovery. It is recommended to conduct 30 - 10 spread compression trading and long - position substitution in the short - term, and continue to recommend hedging at high levels, long - spread trading, and positive spread trading in the medium - term [9]. 2. Rapeseed Oil - Policy impact: The expected US biodiesel policy is expected to boost global oil and fat consumption and support the international rapeseed oil price. The domestic rapeseed oil market is in a situation of strong current reality but weak expectations, and it is expected to shift from a weak trend to a wide - range oscillating trend [10]. 3. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The valuation has returned with the cost - end adjustment, and the supply is expected to gradually loosen. Overseas processing fee hedging has entered the market, and domestic PX factories' hedging positions have increased. The downstream PTA and polyester's future production is expected to decline [81]. - PTA: The processing fee is at a high level. The supply side's production increase space is limited, and the polyester production cut plan has further increased. The actual implementation needs to be observed. The unilateral price has limited downward space [82]. - MEG: The short - term is expected to rebound strongly, and short positions should be closed. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance implementation of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants, and long the 5 - 9 spread at low levels [82]. 4. Other Commodities - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price increases [16]. - Zinc: It is easy to rise but difficult to fall [16]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [16]. - Tin: It is consolidating at a high level [16]. - Aluminum: Slightly under pressure [16]. - Alumina: Oscillating downward [16]. - Platinum: Oscillating upward [16]. - Palladium: Following the upward oscillation [16]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it operates in a wide - range oscillation [16]. - Stainless steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by ferronickel, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [16]. - Lithium carbonate: With inventory reduction and increased purchasing willingness, there may be support at the bottom [16]. - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and it is advisable to short at high levels [16]. - Polysilicon: In an oscillating state [16]. - Iron ore: The valuation is high, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [16]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Ferrosilicon: The raw material cost is loosening, and it oscillates in a wide range [16]. - Silicomanganese: The demand side is slightly tightening, and it oscillates in a wide range [16]. - Coke: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - Coking coal: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - Steam coal: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusted narrowly in the short term [16]. - Log: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - LLDPE: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and spot transactions have weakened [16]. - PP: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong [16]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [16]. - Methanol: Oscillating and falling following the commodity index [16]. - Urea: Oscillating in the short term and the central price is expected to rise in the medium term [16]. - Styrene: Oscillating in the short term [16]. - Soda ash: The spot market has little change [16]. - LPG: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [128]. - Propylene: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong [129]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Fuel oil: The night - session decline has paused the upward trend [16]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Turning to decline, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to shrink [16]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): Oscillating weakly; pay attention to the resumption of shipping expectations for the far - month contracts [16]. - Short - fiber: In a short - term oscillating market [16]. - Bottle chips: In a short - term oscillating market [16]. - Offset printing paper: Consider closing short positions opportunistically [16]. - Pure benzene: Oscillating mainly in the short term [16]. - Palm oil: The sentiment in the oil and fat sector has warmed up as the US biodiesel policy is approaching implementation [16]. - Soybean oil: The rebound height is limited due to the lack of soybean - related themes [16]. - Soybean meal: Wait and see, pending the progress of China - Canada trade consultations [16]. - Soybean: Rebounding and oscillating [16]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot price [16]. - Sugar: Mainly operating weakly [16]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [16]. - Eggs: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [16]. - Hogs: The demand expectation has been priced in advance [16]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [16].