2026年01月16日：期货市场交易指引-20260116

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to sell on rallies [1][7]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; aluminum suggests enhanced observation; nickel suggests observation or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be relatively strong; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][18]. - Cotton - spinning industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples are expected to be slightly strong sideways; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26]. - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts; eggs suggest waiting to sell on rallies for hedging; corn suggests being cautious about chasing highs in the short term and selling on rallies for hedging; soymeal is recommended to be bullish on dips in the near - term contracts and bearish on rallies in the far - term contracts; oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [1][29]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product and gives corresponding investment strategies, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1]. Summaries by Categories Macro - finance - Index futures: Influenced by factors such as Fed officials' statements, employment data, and China's monetary policy, the market sentiment has cooled, and index futures are expected to trade sideways. It is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - Treasury bonds: After the central bank's interest rate cut of structural monetary policy tools, the bond market showed a deep "V" trend. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black building materials - Coking coal: With a slowdown in replenishment and cautious purchasing, and an accumulation of port inventories, the market is in a state of short - term balance between bulls and bears. It is suitable for short - term trading [7]. - Rebar: The futures price is in the range between valley - electricity cost and flat - electricity cost of the electric furnace. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period, and the export is expected to weaken. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention can be paid to the positive cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [7]. - Glass: Although there are short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern has not changed. The inventory problem will still be prominent, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][8]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: In the short term, the upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation still exists. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift in the range. It is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10][11]. - Aluminum: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, and the policy is uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. It is recommended to enhance observation [12]. - Nickel: Although there is a reduction in nickel ore quotas, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13][14]. - Tin: With tight supply and recovering downstream consumption, it is expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to build positions on dips [14]. - Silver and gold: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cuts, the medium - term price centers are expected to move up. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is for range trading [16]. - Lithium carbonate: With supply uncertainties and strong downstream demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17][18]. Energy and chemicals - PVC: Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, it has a low valuation. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy, and attention can be paid to policies and cost - end disturbances [18]. - Caustic soda: With large supply pressure and weak demand, it is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - Styrene: After a previous rebound, the valuation is high. It is for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - Rubber: In a state of long - short balance, it is for range trading. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21]. - Urea: With an increase in supply and stable demand, it is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22]. - Methanol: With a recovery in supply and a weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be weak in the inland market and strong in some areas. It is for range trading [24]. - Polyolefins: With a loose supply and a weakening demand in the traditional off - season, the price is expected to be weakly volatile [24][25]. - Soda ash: With an over - supply situation and rising costs, it is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the price has adjusted after a previous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26][27]. - Apples: The market is relatively stable, with different trading situations in different regions. It is expected to be slightly strong sideways [27]. - Jujubes: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market is showing signs of a bottom - rebound [28]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - Pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. It is suitable to sell on rallies for hedging [29][30]. - Eggs: The short - term price is expected to be strong seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. It is recommended to wait to sell on rallies for hedging [32][33]. - Corn: In the short term, the price increase is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and sell on rallies for hedging. In the long term, the demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [34][35][36]. - Soymeal: The short - term near - term contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37][38]. - Oils: The three major oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [38][43].