国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260116

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series. Iron ore is considered over - valued, and caution is advised when chasing long positions. Other commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs are expected to show different types of oscillations [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price Data: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 813.0 yuan/ton, down 8.0 yuan/ton (-0.97%). Imported ore prices generally declined, and the basis for some varieties increased. The trend strength is 0 [4]. - News: The People's Bank of China will lower the rediscount and refinancing rates by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19, 2026 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price Data: The closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures was 3,160 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.13%); the HC2605 hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices showed some fluctuations, and the basis and spreads also changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [6]. - News: According to weekly data on January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and total inventory decreased. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased both in quantity and price compared to the previous month [6][8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Price Data: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon declined. Spot prices of related products were stable, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and cross - variety spreads. The trend strength for both is 0 [10]. - News: Steel mills' procurement prices and quantities for silicon iron and manganese silicon varied. Manganese ore suppliers increased their February 2026 quotes to China [11][12]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price Data: The JM2605 coking coal futures closed at 1,187.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.8%); the J2605 coke futures closed at 1,745 yuan, up 6.5 yuan (0.4%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some fluctuations, and basis and spreads changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. - News: The CCI metallurgical coal index was stable. Floods in Australia affected coal production, leading to a supply shortage and rising prices [13]. Thermal Coal - Price Data: Domestic and overseas thermal coal prices showed little change. The December 2025 coal import volume was much higher than expected [17]. - News: In December 2025, China's coal imports increased significantly. PPI and CPI data showed positive trends, and there were rumors about the withdrawal of coal production capacity for power supply guarantee [17][18]. Logs - Price Data: Futures prices of log contracts showed slight increases, and there were changes in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices of different types of logs were mostly stable. The trend strength is 0 [20]. - News: China's December 2025 RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating modest growth in business production and operation [22].