Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Soybean oil [1] - Report Cycle: Daily report [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [1][2][5][6] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The current market features "tight supply and cautious demand". Spot prices are supported by tight circulation of grass - root grain sources. Although the auction of imported soybeans increases long - term supply, the short - term impact is limited. With the oil mills' operating rate at a medium level and slow downstream demand, the short - term soybean oil price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile pattern [9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - On January 13, 2026, the opening price of the DCE soybean oil main contract (Y.DCE) was 8008 yuan/ton, the closing price was 7986 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8038 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 7976 yuan/ton. It rose 0.18% on the day, with a trading volume of 27,977 lots, a trading value of 22.411 billion yuan, and an open interest of 709,684 lots [2] 4.2 Spot Market - On January 13, the spot price of Wuhan Grade 4 soybean oil was 8610 yuan/ton, and that of Huangpu Grade 4 soybean oil was 8550 yuan/ton. The basis of all soybean oil contracts was positive [5] 4.3 Influencing Factors - Industry Information - Domestic soybean market: The circulation of grass - root grain sources is tight, and grain - holding entities are determined to hold up prices. The price of high - quality high - protein sources is firm, showing a "strong - price and weak - volume" situation. The mainstream reference price in the domestic soybean spot market today is 4355 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day [6] - Pressing situation: Today, the operating rate of oil mills is about 53.71%. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 1.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years [6] - Imported soybean cost: On January 13, the arrival cost of imported soybeans was 3848.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43.58 yuan/ton or 1.12% from the previous working day. Among them, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4106.11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.05 yuan/ton; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3463.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.39 yuan/ton [6] - US soybean exports: As of the week ending January 8, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons, a 55% increase from the previous week and a 13% increase year - on - year. The total export inspection volume since the 2025/26 season has reached 17,934,546 tons, a 42.8% decrease year - on - year [6] - Technical Analysis - In the past five trading days, soybean oil futures have shown a volatile consolidation trend. The closing prices from January 7 to 13 were 7958 yuan, 7944 yuan, 7994 yuan, 7994 yuan, and 7986 yuan respectively, with prices fluctuating in the range of 7940 - 8000 yuan [6] 4.4 Market Outlook - The short - term soybean oil price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile pattern due to tight supply, cautious demand, and the medium - level operating rate of oil mills [9]
豆油期货日报-20260116
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2026-01-16 01:32