申万期货品种策略日报-油脂油料-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report on the protein meal market indicates that the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is increasing, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest The USDA has adjusted the US soybean production and export forecasts, leading to an increase in ending stocks, and the report's impact on the market is neutral to bearish Domestically, factors such as good state - reserve soybean auction results, high domestic soybean meal inventories, and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans will continue to put pressure on prices [3] - Regarding the oil market, the MPOB report data is in line with expectations, and the overall impact on the market is neutral The cancellation of Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% has raised concerns about palm oil demand, but positive news about US soybean oil demand has boosted oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - For domestic futures, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures have declined, with decreases of - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 3.15% respectively; soybean meal futures decreased by - 0.40%, while rapeseed meal futures increased by 5.01%, and peanut futures increased by 0.29% [2] - In terms of spreads and ratios, there have been changes in various spreads and ratios, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, the P9 - 1 spread changing from - 26 to 62, etc [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - The price of BMD palm oil futures decreased by - 0.48%, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.96%, CBOT US soybean oil increased by 3.72%, and CBOT US soybean meal decreased by - 0.96% [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with decreases of - 0.82%, - 2.26%, and - 1.23% respectively; the prices of soybean meal remained unchanged, rapeseed meal decreased by - 0.84%, and peanuts remained unchanged [2] - There have been changes in spot spreads, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining unchanged at - 150, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil changing from 1280 to 1210 [2] 3.4 Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts - Import profits have changed, with the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changing from - 251 to - 372, and the import profit of US Gulf soybeans changing from - 146 to - 175 [2] - Warehouse receipts have also changed, with the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts changing from 29,147 to 28,247, and the number of palm oil warehouse receipts changing from 1,248 to 1,448 [2] 3.5 Industry Information - According to NOPA data, the US soybean oil inventory in December 2025 was 1.642 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels [3] - As of January 10, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 98.2%, and the harvest rate was 0.6% [3] - The USDA has adjusted the US 2025/26 soybean production and export forecasts, increasing the ending stocks to 350 million bushels [3] - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and inventories increased by 7.58% month - on - month [3] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the biodiesel plan at the B40 level [3]