贵金属：贵金属日报2026-01-16-20260116

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current international gold price is rising steadily, while the silver price is rising rapidly with significantly increased volatility, reflecting the setback of the Fed's independence and the supply - demand imbalance in the physical market. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, as opening new long or short positions involves high risks. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 980 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 19050 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.04% to 1035.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.40% to 23089.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4620.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 92.21 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.17%, and the US dollar index was 99.35 [2] - Trump announced not to impose tariffs on key metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium for the time being. In the short term, US silver inventories will further flow out. COMEX silver inventories decreased by 509 tons from 13989.5 tons at the beginning of this year to 13479 tons on January 15. The one - month spot lease rate dropped to 4% yesterday, alleviating the expectation of tight overseas spot supply. However, the outflow of New York silver inventories cannot change the structural shortage of silver. India's single - month imports in October last year exceeded 1700 tons, and it has greater import potential in the first quarter of this year due to new mortgage regulations [2] - Inflation data declined, supporting the market's expectation of the Fed's easing this year. The US CPI data was lower than expected. The year - on - year value of the US December CPI was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The year - on - year value of the US December core CPI was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% and the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [3] 2. Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract was 4620.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.29%; the trading volume was 22.32 million lots, down 23.12%; the CFTC - reported open interest was 48.81 million lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1124 tons, down 0.23%. The closing price of LBMA gold was 4610.85 dollars/ounce, up 0.09%. The closing price of the active SHFE gold contract was 1035.20 yuan/gram, down 0.52%; the trading volume was 39.29 million lots, down 2.23%; the open interest was 34.88 million lots, up 0.07%; the inventory was 100.15 tons, unchanged. The settled funds were 57.768 billion yuan, down 0.45%. The closing price of AuT + D was 1033.92 yuan/gram, down 0.36%; the trading volume was 45.45 tons, down 31.36%; the open interest was 186.24 tons, down 2.40% [6] - Silver: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract was 92.21 dollars/ounce, down 1.05%; the CFTC - reported open interest was 15.32 million lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13480 tons, down 0.23%. The closing price of LBMA silver was 91.27 dollars/ounce, up 0.19%. The closing price of the active SHFE silver contract was 22665.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.43%; the trading volume was 311.70 million lots, up 14.39%; the open interest was 74.36 million lots, up 0.69%; the inventory was 638.40 tons, up 1.54%. The settled funds were 45.504 billion yuan, up 0.25%. The closing price of AgT + D was 22684.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.36%; the trading volume was 657.20 tons, down 19.09%; the open interest was 3125.288 tons, up 1.47% [6] 3. Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and actual interest rate, the relationship between SHFE gold price and trading volume, etc. [8][11][12][16][26][29][30][31] 4. Near - and Far - Month Structures and Spreads - There are charts and data showing the near - and far - month structures of COMEX gold and silver, as well as the spreads between different markets such as SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA for gold and silver [21][22][34][37][39][48]