棉花：延续调整态势20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market continues to be in an adjustment state. The prices of cotton futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, and the trading atmosphere in the market is relatively weak [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 14,675 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.91%, and its night - session closed at 14,720 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.31%. CY2603 closed at 20,665 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.82%, and its night - session closed at 20,695 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.15%. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 64.62 cents/pound yesterday with a decline of 0.52% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CF2605 was 437,374 lots, a decrease of 19,780 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,212,127 lots, an increase of 435 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 6,755 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 15,580 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,329, an increase of 493, and the effective forecast was 1,209, a decrease of 403. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 7, an increase of 63 [1]. - Spot Prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.83%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan, a decline of 0.83%. The price in Shandong was 16,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan, a decline of 0.04%. The price in Hebei was 15,971 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan, a decline of 0.08%. The 3128B index was 15,972 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan, an increase of 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.04 cents/pound, an increase of 0.14% [1]. - Price Spreads: The CF3 - 5 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 840 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The trading of domestic cotton spot was average, and the basis of spot sales remained stable. The sales basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was mostly at CF05 + 850 or above. The price of slightly contaminated cotton was lower, and it was picked up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was around CF05 + 1000, and there was no slightly contaminated cotton, also picked up in Xinjiang [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline, and the trading atmosphere continued to be weak. The sales of pure cotton yarn categories were significantly differentiated. The sales pressure of low - count and conventional categories was prominent. Some manufacturers had an implicit decline or discount of 100 - 200 yuan/ton in actual transaction prices. The orders of combed high - count yarn continued to be good, the price was firm, and the order scheduling was relatively good [2]. - US Cotton: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly. Although the weekly export data of US cotton was good, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, ICE cotton futures failed to exceed the highs of the previous two days and then declined [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral state [3].