招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities have diverse market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies. For example, in the gold market, prices are expected to rise, while in the basic metal market, opportunities for stable buying are awaited. In the black industry and energy - chemical sectors, the market is complex and requires different strategies such as holding short positions, waiting and seeing, or taking short - term and medium - term actions according to specific situations. In the agricultural product market, prices generally show a trend of shock, and corresponding trading strategies are formulated based on supply - demand relationships [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The price of London gold remained at $4,600 per ounce, and the price of London silver remained at $93 per ounce [1] - Fundamentals: In November, the total scale of US Treasury bonds held by countries and regions outside the US increased by $112.8 billion to $9.36 trillion. China's mainland holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $6.1 billion to $682.6 billion. Many Fed officials supported Powell, and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum. Domestic gold ETFs continued to have a small inflow of 0.8 tons [1] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to go long on gold, and wait and see on silver [1] Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: The copper price fluctuated weakly yesterday [2] - Fundamentals: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a $2.5 - billion key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the downstream point - price increased after the price decline [2] - Trading Strategy: Wait for a clearer opportunity to buy on stabilization [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.89% to 24,375 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 295 yuan/ton. The LME price was $3,162 per ton [2] - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2] - Trading Strategy: The electrolytic aluminum price had a small correction. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term, and focus on the movement of the main funds [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.39% to 2,789 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 119 yuan/ton [2] - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2] - Trading Strategy: The supply of alumina is gradually recovering, the inventory is continuously accumulating, and it is expected to continue the weak shock in the short term [3] Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On January 15, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 25,090 yuan/ton and 17,550 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan and 165 yuan respectively from the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 40 yuan/ton and - 100 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 14.32 dollars/ton and - 43.33 dollars/ton respectively [3] - Fundamentals: The zinc market was obviously driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamental support was insufficient. The lead market showed a weak reality, with weak consumption, increasing inventory, and expanding spot discounts [3] - Trading Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards zinc, and operate in the range or be bearish on lead [3] Other Metals (Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Polysilicon, etc.) - Market Performance and Fundamentals: Each metal has its own characteristics. For example, the silicon market has supply reduction and demand - side anti - involution; the lithium carbonate market has price fluctuations affected by supply and demand; the polysilicon market has production reduction and inventory changes [3] - Trading Strategy: The silicon market can consider short - selling on rallies; the lithium carbonate market is expected to have price support; the polysilicon market is expected to have a weak shock in the low position [3] Tin - Market Performance: The tin price rose first and then fell yesterday [4] - Fundamentals: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports needed time [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait for an opportunity to buy on stabilization [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,161 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - Fundamentals: The building material apparent demand increased by 150,000 tons to 1.9 million tons, and the output decreased by 10,000 tons to 1.9 million tons. The steel supply and demand were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant [5] - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract, with a reference range of 3,130 - 3,180 [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 815 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - Fundamentals: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.8 million tons to 1.66 billion tons. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure, and the valuation was slightly high [5] - Trading Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a reference range of 805 - 835 [5] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,180 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - Fundamentals: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the steel mill profit deteriorated. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The supply - side inventory was differentiated, and the overall inventory level was low. The futures valuation was high [5] - Trading Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract, with a reference range of 1,155 - 1,200 [5] Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The CBOT soybean rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near term, and there was a large - supply expectation in South America in the long term. The US soybean crushing was strong, but the export was weak [7] - Trading Strategy: The US soybean was supported by the bullish expectation of US biodiesel, but it was still in the process of finding a bottom in the medium term. The domestic far - month contract was suppressed by the large - supply expectation in South America, and the near - month contract depended on the game between the reserve release volume and customs clearance [7] Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price was strong, and the spot price rose [7] - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress was slower than the same period last year, and farmers were reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory increased, and the procurement enthusiasm would decline. The supply - demand contradiction was not large [7] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7] Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - Fundamentals: The supply was in a weak seasonal decline, and the export improved month - on - month. The overall pattern was loose in the near term and in a weak seasonal decline in the long term [7] - Trading Strategy: The oils and fats were strong, trading on the bullish expectation of US biodiesel. Pay attention to the production and biodiesel policy in the medium term [7] Cotton - Market Performance: The ICE US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the international crude oil price dropped significantly [7] - Fundamentals: The US cotton export sales increased significantly. India's cotton production was expected to increase. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to fluctuate narrowly, and the medium - term upward trend was still valid [7] - Trading Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a price range reference of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton [7] Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price continued to rise, and the spot price rose [7] - Fundamentals: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the capacity reduction slowed down. The Spring Festival stocking boosted demand, and the inventory decreased [7] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Pigs - Market Performance: The pig futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose [7] - Fundamentals: The January slaughter volume was expected to be low first and then high, and the demand was stable in the short term. The supply pressure was not large in the short term, and the high - end - of - year demand supported the price [7] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Energy Chemical LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6,700 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, and the import window was closed [9] - Fundamentals: The supply pressure slowed down, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film market weakened month - on - month, while the demand in other fields was stable [9] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium term, it is recommended to go long on dips [9] PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract closed at 4,870, down 0.3% [9] - Fundamentals: The PVC was at the bottom and waiting for macro - guidance. The supply was at a high level, and the demand weakened seasonally. The social inventory was at a high level [9] - Trading Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the increasing supply and weakening demand [9] PTA - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price was $882 per ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5,047 yuan/ton. The spot basis was - 65 yuan/ton [9] - Fundamentals: The PX supply was at a high level, and the PTA supply was also high. The polyester factory load decreased slightly, and the downstream entered the off - season [9] - Trading Strategy: The PX has strong expectations to support the price, and there may be a correction pressure in the short term. The PTA has a seasonal inventory increase in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 - contract processing margin [9] Methanol - Market Performance: Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Iran, the methanol futures price rose first and then continued to adjust in shock. As of January 15, the methanol 05 contract closed at 2,273 yuan/ton [9] - Fundamentals: The export tax - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products had little impact on methanol. The domestic methanol production was at a high level, and the port inventory was expected to remain at a high level. The Iranian methanol loading volume in January was expected to be low [9] - Trading Strategy: It is expected to rise in shock in the near future [9] Glass - Market Performance: The fg01 contract closed at 1,087, down 0.5% [10] - Fundamentals: The glass production reduction increased significantly. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the price was at the bottom [10] - Trading Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the decreasing supply and weakening demand [10] PP - Market Performance: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6,450 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10] - Fundamentals: The supply pressure increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [10] Crude Oil - Market Performance: The oil price dropped significantly yesterday. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the risk premium was difficult to fully withdraw, and it may remain in shock in the short term [10] - Fundamentals: The supply pressure was large, and the demand was in the off - season. The OECD oil product inventory was higher than the five - year average [10] - Trading Strategy: It is not recommended to chase the high price. Wait for an opportunity to go short on rallies, or buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [10] Styrene - Market Performance: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 7,160 yuan/ton, and the overseas market price was stable. The import window was closed [10] - Fundamentals: The pure - benzene inventory was at a normal - to - high level, and the short - term supply - demand of styrene weakened. The downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to go long on styrene or pure - benzene spreads on dips in the second quarter [10] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The sa05 contract closed at 1,194, down 2% [11] - Fundamentals: The soda - ash price was at the bottom, the expectation improved, and the inventory was at a high level. The supply was large, and the downstream demand was weak [11] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [11]