2026-01-16：五矿期货农产品早报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar - cane used for sugar production. After the northern hemisphere starts to end the sugar - cane crushing season in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price has fallen to a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, the January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate during the off - season, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. However, after the price reached a high level, the short - term fluctuation range increased. It is advisable to wait for the price to pull back and then consider going long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish because the production estimates of the United States and Brazil are slightly increased, and the U.S. export volume is slightly decreased. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. In the domestic market, according to MYSTEEL data, last week, the arrival and inventory of soybeans both decreased, the oil - mill operation rate decreased month - on - month, and the soybean meal inventory decreased slightly. Overall, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. - For oils, the current high production and sluggish exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventory levels. The inventory of the three major domestic oils is also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamental situation is weak. However, in the long term, the production estimate of Malaysia is lowered, Indonesia has confiscated illegal plantations, and the consumption of U.S. biodiesel made from soybean oil is expected to increase in 2026, so the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [17]. - For eggs, the late Spring Festival has led to continued stocking sentiment, driving the near - month contracts to be relatively strong. However, the large supply base remains, and the young age of laying hens makes it easy for farmers to be reluctant to cull hens after the price increase, thus delaying the reduction of production capacity. Considering the expected price decline of spot eggs after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to short on rallies for near - month contracts. For far - month contracts, although there is a long - term positive expectation, the realization path is uncertain, so attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated better consumption. At the same time, the large price difference between fat and standard pigs has led to sentiment of reluctant selling and hoarding. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has increased significantly, driving a rational rebound in the futures market. In the short term, there is insufficient downward driving force for the spot price, which may continue to support the near - month contracts to oscillate strongly. In the medium term, the supply base is large and will be concentrated around the Spring Festival. The structural contradiction of the shortage of large pigs will also be gradually resolved over time. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure of the near - month contracts, and it is advisable to short on rallies. The direction of production - capacity reduction in the far - end is certain, but the pace is unclear. Generally, it is advisable to buy on dips [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5320 - 5380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the new - sugar quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5190 - 5230 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of sugar - processing plants was 5800 - 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot sugar against the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 40 yuan/ton [2]. - According to UNICA data, in the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. In the first half of December, the sugar - cane crushing volume was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%; the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. According to the export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar in December, an increase of 80,000 tons compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 390,000 tons compared with the previous month. Among them, the sugar exported to China in December was 385,300 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 56,000 tons compared with the previous month. According to the data released by the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, compared with 42 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 1.5823 million tons, compared with 1.417 million tons in the previous week [3]. Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell slightly. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 0.91% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,972 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B against the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 1297 yuan/ton [6]. - According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous year. Among them, the January forecast for U.S. production is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, and the export forecast remains unchanged, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points compared with the previous period. The production forecast for Brazil remains unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India is lowered by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China is increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. According to the export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the same period last year and an increase of 50,000 tons compared with the previous month. Among them, the raw cotton exported to China in December was 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with the same period last year and an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous month. According to USDA data, as of the week of January 1, the current - year cotton export sales in the United States were 23,200 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons; among them, the export to China in that week was 3200 tons, and the cumulative export was 71,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,900 tons. According to Mysteel data, as of the week of January 9, the spinning - mill operation rate was 64.7%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 7.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons compared with the same period last year [6][8]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Thursday, the price of protein - meal futures fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of soybean meal was 360 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 157 yuan/ton [11]. - According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production is 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous year. Among them, the January forecast for U.S. soybean production is 115.99 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous year; the January forecast for Brazilian production is 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous year; the January forecast for Argentine production is 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the U.S. export volume is slightly lowered by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast. According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week of January 9, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a decrease of 730,000 tons compared with the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.03 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 310,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The operation rate of sample soybean - oil mills was 49.5%, a decrease of 8.12 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the soybean - meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 370,000 tons compared with the same period last year [12]. Oils Market Information - On Thursday, the price of oil futures fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 7938 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton or 0.77% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 1.94% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 8828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121 yuan/ton or 1.35% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of soybean oil was 562 yuan/ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 8650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of palm oil was 72 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 772 yuan/ton [15]. - According to USDA data, the January estimate for U.S. soybean - oil consumption is 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.249 million tons compared with the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. According to the data of the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's total vegetable - oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November. According to the data released by MPOB, Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons; the production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons; the export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons. MPOB estimates that Malaysia's palm - oil production in 2026 will be 19.5 - 19.8 million tons, lower than the 20.28 million tons in 2025. According to the data released by SPPOMA, from January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm - oil production decreased by 20.49% month - on - month, the fresh - fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 20.49%, and the oil - extraction rate remained unchanged. According to the sample data released by MMYSTEEL, as of the week of January 9, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.08 million tons, an increase of 158,600 tons compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 70,200 tons compared with the previous week [16]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.03 yuan to 3.49 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 3.2 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. The supply changed little, the downstream demand was relatively normal, and some industry players still had a bullish sentiment. It is expected that today's national egg price may be stable or rising [19]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price showed mixed trends. The average price in Henan increased by 0.08 yuan to 13.07 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 12.77 yuan/kg. Pig farms in the north generally had a sentiment of waiting for price increases, and the pig price may continue to rise. In the southern market, it was more difficult to sell high - priced pigs, and there was a possibility of further price cuts to increase sales volume [22].