国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded [2]. - Silver: There is volatility in tariff expectations [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price increases [2]. - Zinc: It is prone to rise and difficult to fall [2]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [2]. - Tin: It is consolidating at a high level [2]. - Aluminum: It is under slight pressure; Alumina is oscillating downward; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: It is oscillating upward [2]. - Palladium: It is following the upward oscillation [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it is operating in a wide - range oscillation [2]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is in a game about Indonesian policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,035.20 with a daily decline of 0.52%, and the night - session closing price was 1035.98 with a 0.04% increase. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 22713 with a 0.41% decline, and the night - session closing price was 23089.00 with a 1.40% increase. The trading volume and positions of both gold and silver futures decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was unchanged, while Comex gold inventory (in the previous day) decreased by 80,956 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 9703 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory (in the previous day) decreased by 1,311,010 ounces [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and re - discount rates by 25 basis points and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [4][6][11][15][20]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 102,560, with a 1.26% daily decline, and the night - session closing price was 102860 with a 0.29% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 48,394, and the position decreased by 14,853 [7]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 13,378 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 500 tons. The spread of LME copper and other related spreads changed to varying degrees [7]. - Macro and Industry News: The People's Bank of China lowered interest rates; the US employment market remained resilient; the copper premium proposed by Pan - Pacific Copper to Japanese customers in 2026 reached a new high; the copper production of Codelco in November decreased by 3%; the US government may lift the mining ban; Codelco proposed a 1.3 - billion - dollar plan to extend the life of a copper mine; the State Grid plans to increase fixed - asset investment [7][9]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 25090, with a 2.51% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract increased by 259257, and the position increased by 22673 [10]. - News: The Trump administration decided not to impose tariffs on key minerals for the time being; the central bank lowered interest rates and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates further [11][13]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17550, with a 0.95% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract increased by 40261, and the position increased by 7992 [14]. - Inventory and News: The inventory of LME Lead decreased by 3800 tons. The central bank lowered interest rates, and the US employment market remained resilient [14][15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 433.000, with a 4.80% increase, and the night - session closing price was 418.860 with a 3.27% decline. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 187.519 [18]. - Macro and Industry News: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the innovation of state - owned enterprises; Goldman Sachs planned to issue at least 12 billion US dollars in bonds; the central bank lowered interest rates; the demand for AI chips was strong [18][19][20][21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 24375, with a decrease of 220. The prices of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also changed. The trading volume and positions of related contracts changed to varying degrees [24]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of LME Aluminum decreased by 0.20 million tons. Various spreads also had different changes [24]. - Comprehensive News: China's social financing scale increased significantly in 2025; the Pentagon adjusted the aircraft - carrier strike group, and Iran temporarily closed its airspace [25]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 609.05, with a 3.43% decline; the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 478.60, with a 3.41% decline. The trading volume and positions of platinum and palladium futures changed compared to the previous day [28]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump postponed the decision on military strikes against Iran; the US mortgage rate dropped to a three - year low; the US planned to establish a strategic reserve for key minerals; the US initial jobless claims were lower than expected; the Chinese central bank introduced measures to support the economy [30][31]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 146,750, with an increase of 5,810; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,415, with an increase of 490. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [33]. - Industry News: Indonesia suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses; China implemented export license management for some steel products; Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore price formula, lower the production target, and some mines faced fines [33][34][36].