国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity [1][2] - Different commodities show diverse trends, such as some being in a short - term shock state, some showing a weakening trend, and others having a strong supply - demand relationship [2] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Valuation follows the cost - side correction, relatively neutral. Future supply is expected to be loose, and attention should be paid to the terminal restocking and the long - PX short - PTA hedging position [8] - PTA: The processing fee is high, and attention should be paid to reducing the processing - fee position. The supply increase is limited, and the polyester production cut plan increases, but the actual implementation needs to be observed [9] - MEG: Unilateral short - term strong rebound, short positions should leave. Attention should be paid to the spring inspection of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants and the 5 - 9 positive spread [9] Rubber - It shows a weakening shock trend. The fundamentals are multi - empty intertwined. The domestic production area is at the end of the tapping season, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The price is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamental contradictions [10][13] LLDPE - The standard - product production ratio remains low, and spot trading has weakened. The raw - material oil price is strong, but the ethylene monomer is weak. There is a supply - demand pressure in the medium - term due to high capacity and weakening demand [14][15] PP - Monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. However, the end - of - year demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [17][18] Caustic Soda - It is in a weakening shock state. High production and high inventory persist. Demand is weak, and supply pressure is large. Without production cuts, it is difficult to rebound significantly [20][22] Pulp - It shows a weakening shock trend. The import market sentiment is light, and the price trend is differentiated. The port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand lacks new growth [25][29] Glass - The raw - sheet price is stable. The domestic float - glass price shows a pattern of being weak in the north and strong in the south. Supply - side pressure eases slightly, and downstream demand is weak [31][32] Methanol - It follows the commodity index to oscillate and decline. The port market oscillates and consolidates, and the inland price continues to fall. High inventory and weak demand suppress the market [34][36] Styrene - It is in a short - term shock state. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities. In the medium - term, there is still pressure due to the weakening of the PX - BZ and overseas oil - blending drivers and high domestic inventory [38][40] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The domestic float - glass price is stable with partial declines. Demand support is weakening, and the overall supply - demand situation is not good [42][43] LPG and Propylene - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [46] - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong [47] PVC - It is in a weakening shock state. The market has high production and high inventory, and the anti - involution sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to enter the market after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans [55][56] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The night - session decline suspends the upward trend [58] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It turns to decline, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [58] Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a weakening shock state. Attention should be paid to the resumption - of - navigation expectation for the far - month contract. The 02 contract should be observed, and the 04 and 10 contracts can be considered for short - selling [60][76] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both are in a short - term shock state. The staple - fiber futures oscillate and decline, and the bottle - chip factory lowers the price following the raw - material decline [79][80] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to stop losses on short positions opportunistically. The market price is stable, production is stable in some areas, but downstream demand is limited [82][85] Pure Benzene - It is mainly in a short - term shock state. The port inventory is rising, and the market buying interest has retreated due to the price decline in East China and the futures market [87][89]