格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20260116

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although the U.S. cotton weekly export report did not effectively support the external market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have a limited correction due to the approaching Spring Festival for downstream spinning mills and the new capacity being put into operation. There is still an expectation of tight supply after the Spring Festival, so Zhengzhou cotton maintains a bullish outlook [2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Market Quotes - ICE March contract settled at 64.71, down 28 points; May at 66.27, down 23 points; July at 67.69, down 22 points, with about 45,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 437,374 and an open interest of 1,212,127. The settlement prices were 14,780 for January, 14,720 for May, and 14,840 for September [2] Important Information - In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a 9.6% increase from the previous month (110,000 tons) and a 4.8% increase year-on-year (116,000 tons). Brazilian cotton accounted for 27% of total imports, West African cotton 26%, and Indian cotton 21% [2] - As of the week ending January 10, Egyptian cotton net contract exports were 3,783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week (1,075 tons). New contracts mainly came from China (2,427 tons) and India (853 tons). The shipment volume was 25 tons, a significant decrease from the previous week (1,651 tons). The average price of new Giza 94 cotton was 146 cents per pound, up 1 cent per pound from the previous week [2] - Recently, the weather in the cotton - growing areas of Pakistan has been cool and dry. The winter rainfall is still below the average. The total output of new cotton in Pakistan is expected to be between 1085,000 - 1,124,000 tons. The price of seed cotton is stable, ranging from 6,500 - 8,200 rupees per 40 kilograms depending on quality [2] - According to the USDA's January U.S. cotton supply - demand forecast report, the 2025/26 planting area in the United States is 56.345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu from the previous month. Due to the abandonment rate dropping to 15.9% (a decrease of 4.8 percentage points), the harvested area increased to 47.376 million mu, an increase of 2.647 million mu. The expected yield per mu is 64 kg, a decrease of 5.5 kg from the previous month. The expected output is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. The expected consumption is 348,000 tons, a decrease of 5.9% with no significant increase from the previous month. The expected export volume is 2.656 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2] Market Logic - The U.S. cotton weekly export report did not support the external market. The main March contract settled at 64.71 cents, a 0.42% decrease. Zhengzhou cotton rose and then corrected. Although downstream spinning mills are facing the Spring Festival, the correction is expected to be limited due to new capacity being put into operation, and there is still an expectation of tight supply after the Spring Festival [2] Trading Strategy - Build long positions for the May contract below 14,500 yuan per ton and set a take - profit at 15,000 yuan per ton [2]