Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "volatile" [1]. - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "volatile" for natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber [5]. Report's Core View - For the sugar market, both the international and domestic sugar markets are expected to be volatile. The international sugar market lacks new information and is mainly focused on the northern hemisphere's production. The domestic sugar market has limited trading information, and the price may be range - bound without new driving forces [1]. - For the rubber market, the natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation with strong overseas raw material prices but increasing domestic inventory. The synthetic rubber market is expected to be strongly volatile, affected by the strong upstream but sufficient domestic spot supply [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar in the Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Industry Market Review - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5280 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the night - session closing price was 5275 yuan/ton. The closing price of SR609 contract was 5291 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 5289 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5314 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. The price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5320 - 5380 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton. The price range of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5190 - 5230 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream price range of processing sugar factories was 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - As of the first half of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 59818.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1448.9 million tons (2.36%). The ATR of sugarcane was 138.38 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.14 kg/ton compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.91%, an increase of 2.72% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative ethanol production was 30.275 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.717 billion liters (5.37%). The cumulative sugar production was 4015.8 million tons, an increase of 34.3 million tons (0.86%) compared to the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending January 6, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1101827 lots, an increase of 23287 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative long - position was 153060 lots, a decrease of 6484 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative short - position was 328010 lots, an increase of 3915 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative net short - position was 174950 lots, an increase of 10399 lots compared to the previous week [1]. - The number of white sugar warrants on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on the previous day was 14126, a daily increase of 4387 [1]. Market Logic - The international sugar market has limited new information, mainly focusing on the northern hemisphere's production. The far - month supply pressure still exists, and the price may be volatile [1]. - The domestic sugar market has limited trading information. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the pressure at the 5300 integer mark can be maintained. Without new driving forces, it is difficult to have a continuous unilateral trend, and it may be range - bound in the near future [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the long - term short position of SR605 contract and pay attention to the performance of the 5300 - 5315 pressure range. Those who have not entered the market can try short positions against the upper - pressure range. For options, consider the double - selling strategy [1]. Rubber in the Energy and Chemical Industry Market Review - As of January 15, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15995 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.02%. The closing price of NR2603 contract was 12850 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27%. The closing price of BR2603 contract was 12190 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.49% [5]. Important Information - The price of Thai RSS3 was 60.88 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.23. The price of field latex was 58.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.20 Thai baht/kg. The price of cup lump was 52.3 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.50 Thai baht/kg. The price of Malaysian rubber was 702 sen/kg, an increase of 9.5 sen/kg [5]. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 million tons (3.62%). The bonded - area inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 6.14%. The general - trade inventory was 47.47 million tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [5]. - The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex this week was 15750 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan (0.16%). The weekly average price of 20 - standard Thai rubber in the Qingdao market was 1919 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars (0.27%). The weekly average price of 20 - mixed Thai rubber in the Qingdao market was 15076 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan (0.37%) [5]. - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis polybutadiene rubber industry was 79.68%, a month - on - month increase of 0.53 percentage points [5]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central region of Shandong was 9850 - 9900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangsu was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. - The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 12100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's BR9000 was 12100 - 12300 yuan/ton [5]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The daily line of natural rubber closed down. Technically, the price is in a consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the pressure and support at the upper and lower limits of the range. Overseas raw material prices are strong, but the inventory in Qingdao is increasing. The short - term fundamental situation is mixed, and the overall change is limited. Recently, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - funds on the price [5]. - Synthetic rubber: The price of upstream butadiene is still strong, and the export deal rumor of domestic butadiene resources boosts the bullish sentiment. However, the current spot supply of polybutadiene rubber is sufficient. Except for the shutdown of the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, the operating load of other polybutadiene rubber plants is at a high level. Technically, the BR futures price is still in an upward channel, and attention should be paid to the resistance near the previous high. Recently, pay attention to the impact of the overseas situation on the energy and chemical sector, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [5]. Trading Strategy - The active RU contract should pay attention to the range of 15750 - 16400 yuan/ton; the NR contract should pay attention to the range of 12700 - 13300 yuan/ton; the BR contract should pay attention to the range of 12100 - 12600 yuan/ton. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [5].
格林期货早盘提示：白糖-20260116
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-16 01:52