格林期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (pure benzene) is "oscillating bearish" [1] Report's Core View - The Middle - East geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand side's operating rates have improved. In the short - term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5460 - 5750 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the port arrival volume and future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices. It is recommended to close out long positions at a profit [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the main futures contract BZ2603 dropped by 57 yuan to 5620 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5535 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5462 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month - on - month). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 209 to 20,700, and the number of short positions increased by 130 to 26,400 [1] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%. According to customs statistics, in November 2025, China's monthly pure benzene import volume was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons, the monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89%; compared with the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrival volume was about 36,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was about 30,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the operating rate of phenol was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the operating rate of aniline was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam plants have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there is an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam has been put into production [1] - International Oil Prices: The situation in Iran has shown signs of temporary easing, and the market expects the crude oil supply from Venezuela to increase in the future, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract dropped by 2.83 US dollars/barrel to 59.19 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract dropped by 2.76 US dollars/barrel to 63.76 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15%. The price of China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose by 2.7 to 452.4 yuan/barrel, and then dropped by 10.6 to 441.8 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The Middle - East geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand side's operating rates have improved. In the short - term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5460 - 5750 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the port arrival volume and future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices [1] Trading Strategy - Close out long positions at a profit [1]