铜：美元走强，限制价格上涨

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The strengthening of the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices, and the trend strength of copper is neutral [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 102,560 with a daily decline of 1.26%, and the night - session closing price was 102,860 with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 13,149 with a daily decline of 1.14%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 643,234, a decrease of 48,394 from the previous day, and the position was 683,376, a decrease of 14,853. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 65,624, an increase of 31,797, and the position was 326,000, an increase of 2,579 [1]. - Inventory Data: The Shanghai copper inventory was 162,717, an increase of 13,378, and the LME copper inventory was 141,125, a decrease of 500. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 35.50%, a decrease of 0.51% [1]. - Spread Data: The LME copper premium and discount was 44.29, a decrease of 45.94 from the previous day. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was 200, an increase of 60 from the previous day. The near - month contract to the continuous - first contract spread was - 360, an increase of 60 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the rediscount and re - loan interest rates by 25 basis points and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The US employment market remains resilient, with the number of initial jobless claims dropping to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November last year, and the US dollar rebounding to a more than one - month high [1]. - Industry News: Pan - Pacific Copper (PPC) proposed a copper premium of up to $330 per ton for Japanese domestic customers in 2026, a record high. Codelco's copper production in November decreased by 3% year - on - year to 130,900 tons. The US government may lift the mining ban in northern Minnesota, potentially reviving a major mining project. Codelco submitted a $1.3 billion plan to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine to 2058. The State Grid Corporation plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the 14th Five - Year Plan [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].