宝城期货股指期货早报（2026年1月16日）-20260116

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the stock index is oscillating with a slightly upward trend in the short - term. For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term are both oscillating, and the intraday view is slightly upward, with an overall view of oscillating and slightly upward due to the unchanged policy favorable expectations and the trend of net capital inflow [1][5]. - Although the stock market showed an oscillating consolidation trend with a significant shrinkage in trading volume today, in the long run, the continuous fermentation of policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market make the logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index relatively reliable, but the short - term rhythm is uncertain and the intraday fluctuations will intensify [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is slightly upward, and the overall view is oscillating and slightly upward. The core logic is the unchanged policy favorable expectations and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is slightly upward, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and slightly upward. - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated. The total market turnover was 291.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.54 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The significant shrinkage in trading volume today indicates that investors have realized the policy intention of the regulatory authorities to reduce leverage and control risks, and the risk preference of investors has decreased. - Due to the obvious increase in the valuation of some stocks since this year while the performance repair is not strong, the profit - making funds have the need for "high - low switching", showing an oscillating consolidation market. - In the long run, the continuous fermentation of policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market make the logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index relatively reliable, but the short - term rhythm is uncertain and the intraday fluctuations will intensify [5].