金融期货早评-20260116

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Financial Futures: China's central bank has introduced eight structural optimization policies, signaling a shift from chasing liquidity to focusing on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings. The RMB exchange rate maintains two - way flexibility, and the central bank has room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. China's exports are expected to remain resilient, and the monetary policy will stay moderately loose. For RMB exchange rates, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has increased significantly, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar before the Spring Festival [1][3]. - Stock Index Futures: The previous regulatory actions mainly caused short - term fluctuations without changing the medium - to - long - term trends. After the release of multiple favorable policies by the central bank, the stock index is more likely to strengthen again [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The central bank's use of structural tools to support the real economy has a certain boosting effect on the bond market, but the scope of the market may be limited. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and not chase short - term highs [6]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The market logic has shifted from trading geopolitical risk premiums to trading pre - Spring Festival spot price cuts. The futures are expected to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [6][8][9]. - Commodities - New Energy: For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, pay attention to polysilicon production resumption and shutdown dynamics in the short term, and consider long positions on dips for industrial silicon in the medium - to - long term [12][15]. - Non - ferrous Metals: For copper, do not build new positions above 100,000 yuan; for aluminum, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; for alumina, it is expected to be oscillating and weakening; for zinc, it is expected to be oscillating strongly; for nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be oscillating and adjusting; for tin, it is recommended to go long on dips; for lead, it is expected to be oscillating strongly [17][19][22]. - Oils and Fats and Feeds: For oilseeds, the external soybean market will be weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal will be strong in the near term and weak in the far term. For oils, the short - term market will continue to rebound in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to reduce positions in the M3 - 5 long spread and short positions in rapeseed meal [24][25][27]. - Energy and Oil and Gas: For fuel oil, beware of geopolitical fluctuations and consider the 5 - 9 long spread after a correction. For asphalt, pay attention to long spread opportunities. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [29][30][33]. - Precious Metals: Platinum and palladium are expected to continue their bull market in the medium - to - long term. Gold and silver are in an upward - biased pattern, and it is recommended to add long positions on dips while controlling positions [35][36][38]. - Chemicals: For pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to wait and consider long positions on dips. For LPG, follow geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance. For PTA - PX, do not chase long positions at high valuations. For MEG - bottle chips, it is in a weak pattern, and it is recommended to wait for macro - policy changes. For methanol, do not short. For PE, it is expected to decline. For pure benzene - styrene, styrene is running strongly. For rubber, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [39][42][55]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and glass is facing high inventory pressure. Caustic soda is expected to be weakly oscillating [57][58][59]. - Propylene: It fluctuates with costs, and pay attention to geopolitical impacts on costs and PDH device changes [59][60]. - Black Metals: For steel products, the downside is limited, but the upside lacks drivers, and the price will oscillate. For iron ore, the price is expected to decline in the short term. For coking coal and coke, the supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the inventory may improve [61][62][64]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities: For live pigs, the market is oscillating, and it is recommended to sell call options on the 03 contract around 13,000. For cotton, there is a short - term callback risk, but the decline may be limited. For sugar, the short - term price is oscillating strongly with increasing pressure. For rubber, it oscillates and it is recommended to wait and see. For apples, it may continue to strengthen after a short - term adjustment. For red dates, the price will oscillate at a low level in the short term and be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. For logs, the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to consider short positions around 800 [65][67][75]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Categories Financial Futures - Macro: The central bank has introduced eight measures, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools and a reduction of the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30%. The US initial jobless claims were lower than expected, and the Fed's stance on interest rates is divided. The US is facing multiple issues such as stagflation, institutional disputes, and geopolitical conflicts. China's exports in 2025 maintained medium - to - high - speed growth, and the full - year social financing increment exceeded 35 trillion yuan [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has increased significantly. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar before the Spring Festival, and its appreciation is affected by the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [1][3]. - Stock Index Futures: The previous regulatory actions mainly caused short - term fluctuations. After the release of multiple favorable policies by the central bank, the stock index is more likely to strengthen again. The impact of external factors on A - shares is limited [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The central bank's use of structural tools to support the real economy has a certain boosting effect on the bond market, but the scope of the market may be limited. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and not chase short - term highs [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - Market Logic: The market logic has shifted from trading geopolitical risk premiums to trading pre - Spring Festival spot price cuts. The futures are expected to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [6][8][9]. - Risk Factors: Pay attention to the rhythm and amplitude of pre - Spring Festival price cuts by shipping companies, geopolitical fluctuations, and the guidance of shipping companies' February opening prices and actual shipment volume data in late January [14]. Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market is in a "not - so - off - season" state. The futures volatility is at a historical high. It is recommended to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [12]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: In the short term, pay attention to polysilicon production resumption and shutdown dynamics. In the medium - to - long term, consider long positions on dips for industrial silicon [13][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The decline in copper prices is limited due to the small amount of available goods. Do not build new positions above 100,000 yuan. Enterprises in need of spot procurement can consider constructing option strategies [16][17]. - Aluminum and Its Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; alumina is expected to be oscillating and weakening; casting aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Pay attention to the impact of policies such as tariffs and export tax rebates [18][19]. - Zinc: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. Although the fundamentals have the potential to go long, there is significant hedging pressure above [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are expected to be oscillating and adjusting. The quota issuance rhythm is the core factor, and the new energy demand may be favorable [20][21]. - Tin: It may still have upward momentum after a short - term callback. It is recommended to go long on dips [22]. - Lead: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. The price is expected to be range - bound in 2026 [23]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - Oilseeds: The external soybean market will be weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal will be strong in the near term and weak in the far term. Pay attention to the progress of Chinese soybean purchases and the supply situation of Brazilian soybeans [24][25]. - Oils: The short - term market will continue to rebound in a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to origin information and international relations. It is recommended to reduce positions in the M3 - 5 long spread and short positions in rapeseed meal [25][26][27]. Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil: Supply is affected by sanctions, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors at the bottom. Consider the 5 - 9 long spread after a correction [29][30]. - Asphalt: The cost is affected by geopolitical factors, and the spot price has a certain bottom support. Pay attention to long spread opportunities. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [31][33][34]. Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The US tariff policy has changed, and geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The medium - to - long - term bull market foundation remains. Pay attention to international market prices [35][36]. - Gold and Silver: The price fluctuates greatly. The medium - to - long - term trend is upward. It is recommended to add long positions on dips while controlling positions [36][37][38]. Chemicals - Pulp and Offset Paper: The pulp market is bearish, but there is a possibility of a rebound at a low level. The offset paper market is neutral - bearish. It is recommended to wait and consider long positions on dips [39][40][41]. - LPG: The market is affected by geopolitical factors and domestic device maintenance. Pay attention to supply and demand changes [42]. - PTA - PX: PTA's over - supply situation has been alleviated, but the upside of processing fees is limited. PX is in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026. Do not chase long positions at high valuations [43][44][45]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand - side negative feedback is intensifying, and the market is in a weak pattern. Wait for macro - policy changes [45][46]. - Methanol: The geopolitical logic continues. Although the MTO side's shutdown weakens the fundamentals of the 05 contract, do not short [47]. - PE: The market is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is expected to decline [48][49]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation and follows cost fluctuations. Styrene is running strongly due to export news and downstream buying [50]. - Rubber: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [50][54][55]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The new production capacity is being released, and the market is in an over - supply situation. The price is restricted by high inventory [57]. - Glass: There are still some production line cold - repairs to be realized before the Spring Festival. The market is facing high inventory pressure [58]. - Caustic Soda: It is in a weak state, and the demand side is expected to weaken further. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [59]. Propylene - It fluctuates with costs. Pay attention to geopolitical impacts on costs and PDH device changes. The supply - demand situation is still relatively loose, but the pressure has improved [59][60]. Black Metals - Steel Products: The downside is limited, but the upside lacks drivers. The price will oscillate. The short - term price range of the rebar 2605 contract is expected to be between 3050 - 3200 yuan, and that of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract is expected to be between 3200 - 3350 yuan [61]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals are weakening. The price is expected to decline in the short term, but the downside is limited [61][62]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the inventory may improve. Pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Live Pigs: The market is oscillating. It is recommended to sell call options on the 03 contract around 13,000 [65][66]. - Cotton: There is a short - term callback risk, but the decline may be limited. Pay attention to downstream imports and orders [66][67]. - Sugar: The short - term price is oscillating strongly with increasing pressure. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [67][69]. - Rubber: It oscillates and it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [70][74][75]. - Apples: It may continue to strengthen after a short - term adjustment. Pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking situation [75][76]. - Red Dates: The price will oscillate at a low level in the short term and be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to downstream procurement [77][78]. - Logs: The price will oscillate strongly. The upside is limited by the lowest warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong. Consider short positions around 800 and option double - selling strategies [78][79][80].