综合晨报-20260116

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Iran tensions ease, geopolitical risk premium declines, and short - term oil price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure in Q1 2026 [1] Precious Metals - US economic data shows resilience, Fed officials oppose short - term rate cuts, and precious metals remain strong due to the tense Iran situation [2] Copper - Copper price adjusts overnight, with an increase in SHFE copper warehouse receipts. The strategy of selling call options at high levels is preferred [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum continues to adjust. There is a short - term fundamental divergence, and caution is advised for speculation. Aluminum plants can consider selling hedging [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The spread between it and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [5] Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in significant surplus. Sell on rallies when the spread is low [6] Zinc - LME's decision triggers a short - term bull market, but the supply - demand relationship remains unchanged. There is a need for volatility reduction, and opportunities to sell call options and short on rallies are recommended [7] Lead - The market is bullish, but the upside of Shanghai lead is constrained. It is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is strongly oscillating, and stainless - steel market is active. Short - term sentiment is high, and buying on dips is recommended [9] Tin - Shanghai tin declines with reduced positions. Observe its adjustment resilience, and continue to sell call options with high strike prices near expiration [10] Lithium Carbonate - The market is active, with a change in the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt plants. The futures price is strong but highly uncertain [11] Industrial Silicon - There are expectations for the technological transformation of 12,500kva furnaces. It is expected to oscillate mainly due to weak demand [12] Polysilicon - It oscillates around 48,000 yuan/ton. The trading logic has changed, and caution is advised [13] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel prices oscillate at night. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market will continue to oscillate in the short term [14] Iron Ore - The supply is seasonally decreasing, and demand is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. It will mainly oscillate with high - level volatility risks [15] Coke - The price oscillates. Carbon supply is abundant, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [16] Coking Coal - The price oscillates. Carbon supply is abundant, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [17] Manganese Silicon - The price rebounds from the bottom. Manganese ore prices rise, and buying on dips is recommended [18] Silicon Iron - The price rebounds from the bottom. Affected by policies, demand is resilient, and buying on dips is recommended [19] Group 3: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - Airlines are reducing prices to compete for cargo, and the 04 contract is driven by expectations. It will oscillate with spot sentiment [20] Group 4: Fuels and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil drops with crude oil due to eased Iran tensions. Geopolitical factors will continue to affect the market, and high - sulfur cracking spreads may remain strong [21] Asphalt - Asphalt follows crude oil with limited amplitude. Pay attention to Venezuelan crude oil arrivals [22] Urea - The spot price rises continuously, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [23] Methanol - The geopolitical risk eases, and the market has intensified long - short competition [24] Pure Benzene - It follows the oil price decline. Supply is sufficient, and it will oscillate in the short term with large de - stocking resistance in the long term [25] Styrene - Supply - demand is in tight balance, and exports are good. Pay attention to the oil - price risk [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Supply is tight, and downstream demand is good. However, pay attention to the oil - price risk [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC weakens at night. It may go through capacity reduction in 2026. Caustic soda is weak with high inventory [28] PX and PTA - They decline with the oil price. PX can be allocated long after adjustment, and PTA's processing margin is moderately restored [29] Ethylene Glycol - Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. It is recommended to focus on波段行情 [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber demand weakens, and bottle - chip price follows the raw - material decline with capacity pressure [31] Glass - It is weak. It is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, and buying on dips can be considered in the long term [32] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - Demand recovers, natural rubber supply decreases, and synthetic rubber supply increases. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [33] Soda Ash - It is weak with high supply pressure. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [34] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The US may determine biofuel quotas in March. South American harvest is expected to be good. Observe the US biofuel policy and South American weather [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - They are expected to oscillate in a range. The upper and lower limits are affected by supply expansion and bio - diesel demand, respectively [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The market is optimistic about the improvement of China - Canada rapeseed trade, and rapeseed prices are expected to be weak this week [37] Domestic Soybean - It stops falling and rebounds. The supply of high - quality soybeans is tight, and demand is cautious [38] Corn - Dalian corn futures oscillate at a high level, and the main driving factor is unclear. It will oscillate widely in the short term [39] Pig - The futures price oscillates. Pig prices may hit a low in H1 2027. Watch the supply - demand game before the Spring Festival [40] Egg - The egg futures price rises with reduced positions. Supply is expected to decrease and demand to increase in H1 2026, and long - near and short - far strategies are recommended [41] Cotton - US cotton falls slightly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level. It may continue to adjust, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [42] Sugar - International sugar production varies. Zhengzhou sugar rebounds, but the rebound may be limited due to a strong production increase expectation [43] Apple - The futures price is high. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] Timber - The price is low. Low inventory provides some support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [45] Pulp - The futures price falls. The short - term fundamentals are average, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [46] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillate with reduced volume. The "Spring Market" may continue, and pay attention to the shift of the upward driver [47] Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures perform differently. The bond market may oscillate, and consider the opportunity to flatten the yield curve [48]