伊朗局势暂时平息，原油带动化?同步调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The situation in Iran has temporarily subsided, leading to a significant decline in oil prices and a synchronous adjustment in the chemical industry. Although the short - term risk of US military action against Iran has decreased, the potential impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict still needs attention [1]. - The chemical futures prices have fluctuated more violently, generally following the sharp decline of crude oil. The adjustment space of the chemical industry this time will not reach the low point in December. Investors should view the market with a volatile mindset [2]. - Crude oil still has the possibility of geopolitical risks, and the chemical industry should be treated with a volatile perspective [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: The situation in Iran has cooled down, and the geopolitical premium has declined. The supply pressure persists, but the geopolitical premium may fluctuate. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [7]. - Asphalt: The high valuation of asphalt is gradually being revised downwards. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner in the medium - to - long term as the absolute price is overvalued [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The situation between the US and Iran has cooled down, and the fuel oil premium has declined. It is expected to be volatile as the growth of Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure, while short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has fallen. It is expected to be volatile, following the movement of crude oil, as it is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high - sulfur fuels with limited demand space, but currently has a low valuation [10]. - PX: The cost is weak, and combined with rumors of device maintenance changes, the profit is being adjusted. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with attention paid to the support around 7000 yuan [12]. - PTA: The cost support is insufficient, and the downstream negative feedback is strong. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with attention paid to the support around 5000 yuan [13][14]. - Pure Benzene: The downstream styrene is strong, boosting the price of pure benzene. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the market currently in a state of weak reality and the expected improvement temporarily failing to materialize [15][17]. - Styrene: The supply - demand situation is tight, and the commodity atmosphere is good. It is expected to be strong in a volatile manner in the short term if there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: The sentiment is poor, and the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with limited rebound height due to long - term inventory accumulation pressure [20][22]. - Short - Fiber: The demand sustainability is insufficient, and it is expected to be range - bound. The price will follow the upstream adjustment, and the processing fee is slightly under pressure [24]. - Polyester Bottle Chips: The supply is continuously compressed, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. The absolute value will follow the raw material fluctuations, and the support for the processing fee is increasing [26]. - Methanol: The inland market continues to be weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term [29]. - Urea: The regional top - dressing demand provides support, but the market is resistant to high prices. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with a possible slight upward exploration [30]. - LLDPE: The downstream trading volume has shrunk, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [34]. - PP: The maintenance has slightly decreased, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - PL: The supply has tightened, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [36]. - PVC: The short - term "rush for exports" provides support, but the long - term pressure is high. It is expected to be supported in the short term and under pressure in the long term [38][39]. - Caustic Soda: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to run weakly. The supply - demand situation is still under pressure, but the price decline is limited by liquid chlorine [40]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.66 with a change of - 0.03 [42]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of different varieties. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 67 with a change of 1, and the warehouse receipt is 47720 [43]. - Inter - variety Spreads: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 80 with a change of 283 [45]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of basis and spreads for multiple chemical varieties including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific detailed data summaries are not provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index is 2439.09, with a decline of 0.39%; the commodity 20 index is 2791.36, with a decline of 0.63%; the industrial product index is 2354.54, with a decline of 0.35% [285]. - Energy Index: On January 15, 2026, the energy index is 1127.52. The daily decline is 0.10%, the 5 - day increase is 2.62%, the 1 - month increase is 4.36%, and the increase since the beginning of the year is 3.77% [287].