铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims below 200,000 and continuing claims at a low level. The US and Taiwan, China, reached a trade and investment agreement, and the US stock market closed higher. Gold, silver, and copper prices retreated, and oil prices fell about 4%. Domestically, December's financial data was better than expected, but the full - year new RMB loans in 2025 hit a seven - year low. The central bank cut the interest rates of structural tools by 25BP. The A - share market entered a slope correction period after significant volume increases [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the suspension of tariff concerns, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. Copper prices may adjust in the short - term but will likely see a long - term increase in the valuation center. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels due to mixed macro news and weak downstream demand. Alumina prices are under pressure and may oscillate weakly. Cast aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels. Zinc and lead prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. Tin prices may shift to high - level oscillations [4][6][8][10][11]. - For steel products, steel prices are generally oscillating due to limited fundamental drivers. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate due to strong supply and weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue oscillating due to weak fundamental drivers. For agricultural products, soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [19][20][21][24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US job market is resilient, with initial jobless claims below 200,000 and continuing claims at a low level. The US and Taiwan, China, reached a trade and investment agreement, reducing tariffs from 20% to 15% in exchange for semiconductor - related investments in the US. The US stock market closed higher, the US dollar index rose above 99.3, precious metals prices retreated, and oil prices fell about 4% [2]. - Domestic: December's financial data was better than expected, but the full - year new RMB loans in 2025 hit a seven - year low. The central bank cut the interest rates of structural tools by 25BP and retained the possibility of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The A - share market entered a slope correction period after significant volume increases [3]. Precious Metals - The Trump administration decided not to impose full - scale tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum. After the suspension of tariff concerns, precious metals prices oscillated at high levels. Market expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the January 27 - 28 meeting and cut rates at least twice in 2026 [4][5]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract oscillated at a high level, and the London copper found support at $12,800. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market had weak trading. The LME and COMEX inventories increased. Trump may cancel tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and key minerals. The market expects the US to impose a 15% import tariff on refined copper from 2027. In the medium - term, the structural imbalance in fundamentals will raise the valuation center of London copper [6][7]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,320 yuan/ton, down 0.59%. The LME aluminum closed at $3,171.5/ton, down 0.56%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory increased. The strong US employment data supported the US dollar index, and the domestic "structural interest rate cut" showed moderately loose policy characteristics. The downstream demand for aluminum was weak, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on high - level aluminum prices [8][9]. Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2,766 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The spot alumina national average price was 2,671 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, and the supply - demand surplus continues. The inventory continues to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [10]. Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. The supply - side profit inversion restricts production, and the downstream demand is weak due to the seasonal off - season. The cost side has slightly loosened, and the price is expected to adjust under pressure [11]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract 2603 rose and then fell during the day and oscillated narrowly at night. The LME zinc oscillated narrowly. The LME will not accept certain brands of zinc for delivery from April 14, 2026, but the substantial impact is limited. The downstream consumption is further suppressed, and the social inventory is stagnant at around 118,000 tons. The zinc price is expected to shift to high - level oscillations [12][13]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract 2603 oscillated during the day and shifted upward slightly at night. The LME lead oscillated strongly. The LME will not accept certain brands of lead for delivery from April 14, 2026, but the substantial impact is limited. The social inventory increased to 32,500 tons, and the inventory's support for the lead price weakened. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely due to the combination of multiple and short factors [14][15]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract 2603 oscillated at a high level during the day and fell at night. The LME tin fell slightly. On January 15, the tin registered warehouse receipts increased by 2,419 tons. The exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio, daily limit range, and trading volume limit for tin to cool down the over - heated market. The tin price is expected to shift to high - level oscillations [16][17][18]. Steel Products - Steel futures oscillated. The five major steel products' supply increased slightly, the total inventory decreased slightly, and the apparent consumption increased. The steel price is expected to oscillate due to limited fundamental drivers [19]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted slightly. The demand side is restricted by the off - season, and the supply side will see a concentrated arrival of iron ore due to the end - of - year mine production rush. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coking enterprises' profitability shrank, and the production slowed down. The upstream coal mines resumed production, but the coking coal output was not high. The downstream finished products had high inventory and limited steel mill profits, and the demand for coke price increases was weak. The price is expected to continue oscillating [21]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 05 contract closed down 0.33%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed down 0.74%. The US December soybean crushing volume increased by 8.9% year - on - year. The US biodiesel policy may be finalized in early March. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [22][23][24]. Palm Oil - The palm oil 05 contract closed down 2.03%. The Malaysian palm oil export volume increased from January 1 - 15. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be finalized in early March, boosting the US soybean oil price. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26].