资讯早间报：隔夜夜盘市场走势-20260116

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - Energy Futures: WTI crude oil futures fell 4.38% to $59.17 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures dropped 4.06% to $63.82 per barrel [4]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold futures declined 0.33% to $4620.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.90% to $92.21 per ounce [5]. - Base Metals: Most London base metals declined, with LME zinc up 1.14% at $3313.5 per ton, LME lead up 0.87% at $2096.5 per ton, LME copper down 0.30% at $13148.5 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.46% at $3171.5 per ton, LME nickel down 0.56% at $18590.0 per ton, and LME tin down 1.29% at $52775.0 per ton [5]. 2. Important News Macro News - US initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November, below all expectations [8]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the central bank should focus on reducing inflation, maintaining the expectation of a possible rate cut later this year [8]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in relending and rediscount rates starting January 19, 2026 [8]. Energy Futures - As of January 15, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight cases, down 4.51% week - on - week, falling for three consecutive weeks [10]. - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, up 0.66% from Monday [12]. - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all reached multi - week highs as of January 14 [12]. - Qatar cut the March futures price of Al - Shaheen crude oil to a discount of 33 cents per barrel to Dubai quotes [13]. - US natural gas inventories decreased by 71 billion cubic feet to 3.185 trillion cubic feet in the week ended January 9, up 1.0% year - on - year [13]. Metal Futures - In 2025, global gold ETF inflows reached $89 billion, and the total AUM grew to $559 billion, with total holdings hitting a record high of 4025 tons [15]. - Vale Indonesia received approval for its 2026 mining quota and resumed normal operations [15]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit, margin ratio, and daily trading volume limit for tin futures contracts starting January 15 [15]. - Goldman Sachs said if Indonesia tightens its 2026 nickel mining quota to 260 million tons, the average nickel price could be close to $18,000 per ton [17]. Black Futures - In early January, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises increased 21.6% week - on - week, and the estimated national daily output of crude steel rose 22.8% [19]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton this week [19]. - As of January 15, the output and factory inventory of rebar decreased, while social inventory increased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand increased [19]. - In early January, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased 6.4% from the previous ten - day period [20]. - CICC believes that the steel industry will still face demand reduction and structural adjustment in 2026, with limited improvement in supply - demand and profitability [20]. Agricultural Futures - CONAB forecasts Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to reach 176.1244 million tons, up 2.7% year - on - year [23]. - US 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 2.062 million tons last week, up from 878,000 tons the previous week [24]. - The IGC expects global 2025/26 soybean production to increase by 1 million tons to 427 million tons, with consumption rising by 1 million tons to 432 million tons [24]. - Private exporters reported soybean and corn sales for the 2025/2026 season [24]. - The Trump administration is advancing biofuel policies and may finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March [24]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 increased by 17.53% - 18.64% compared to the same period last month [25]. - US December 2025 soybean crush was 224.991 million bushels, and soybean oil inventory was 1.642 billion pounds [25]. 3. Financial Markets Financial Sector - A - shares showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up [28]. - Hong Kong stocks declined, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.28% [28]. - Some brokers reported tight margin trading quotas, and there were large differences in margin trading interest rates among brokers [28]. - On January 15, 21 ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan [29]. - The Huaxia Gold ETF's circulation scale reached 100.762 billion yuan on January 14, becoming the first 100 - billion - level gold ETF in China [29]. - Three companies passed the listing review of the Beijing Stock Exchange in the first half - month of 2026 [29]. Industrial Sector - China will expand service - sector opening - up in 2026, including value - added telecommunications, biotechnology, and foreign - owned hospitals [31]. - State Grid will invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, up 40% from the previous period [32]. - In 2025, over 5500 idle land parcels were planned to be acquired using special bonds, with a total value exceeding 750 billion yuan [32]. - The 2026 Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in Shenzhen on March 17 - 18 [32]. - Some small and medium - sized banks are offering deposit gifts and slightly raising deposit rates [32]. - Baoneng Group's Chairman Yao Zhenhua accused the Changshu court of illegal actions in a 270 - million - yuan execution case, but the local government denied the accusation [32]. Overseas Sector - US President Trump wants a "quick and decisive" military strike against Iran, and the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is being deployed to the Middle East [34]. - Trump has no plan to fire Fed Chair Powell and is considering Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as potential successors [34]. - US initial jobless claims dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November [35]. - Some Fed officials are inclined to maintain interest rates and may consider a mild rate cut later this year [35]. - Japan's opposition parties are considering forming a new party to compete in the upcoming elections [35]. - The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% [35]. - The Bank of Japan may re - evaluate its interest - rate hike timing due to exchange - rate factors [36]. - Chinese citizens can enter the Philippines visa - free for up to 14 days starting January 16 [38]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.6%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq up 0.25% [39]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.26%, the French CAC40 down 0.21%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.54% [39]. - Asian stocks were mixed, with the South Korean KOSPI up 1.58% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 down 0.42% [39]. - Goldman Sachs' Q4 2025 revenue decreased 3% to $13.5 billion, but its stock - trading revenue set a record [40]. - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2025 revenue was $17.89 billion, up 10.3% year - on - year [41]. - US six major banks paid over $140 billion in dividends and repurchased stocks in 2025, and the trend is expected to continue [41]. Commodity Markets - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for tin futures [43]. - There was a reported "silver merchant default case" in Shenzhen's Shuibei market, with an alleged value of 200 million yuan [43]. - Oil prices fell due to expected increased Venezuelan production, easing Middle - East tensions, and rising US crude inventories [43]. - Precious metals prices were affected by Fed officials' hawkish signals and strong US economic data [44]. - Trump's administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals and will seek bilateral negotiations [45]. - The EU will lower the price cap on Russian oil from $47.6 to $44.1 per barrel starting February 1 [47]. Bond Markets - China extended tax - exemption policies for foreign institutions investing in domestic bonds until December 31, 2027 [48]. - China's inter - bank bond market rebounded, and Vanke's bonds rose significantly [48]. - As of December 2025, foreign institutions held 3.46 trillion yuan of Chinese inter - bank bonds, accounting for about 2% of the total [49]. - Holders of Vanke's mid - term notes proposed four repayment plans [49]. - US Treasury yields rose across the board [49]. - In November 2025, overseas investors net - bought $85.6 billion of US Treasuries, with China reducing its holdings and Japan increasing [51]. - Goldman Sachs will issue $16 billion of investment - grade bonds [52]. - In 2025, overseas investors net - bought 147.1 trillion won ($100.1 billion) of South Korean bonds, up 96.4% from 2024 [52]. Foreign Exchange Markets - China's central bank official said there is no need for China to devalue the yuan for trade advantages, and the yuan is expected to fluctuate [53]. - China's foreign exchange market trading volume reached $42.6 trillion in 2025, and the corporate hedging ratio rose to 30% [53]. - The on - shore yuan rose against the US dollar on Thursday [53]. - The US dollar index rose 0.28% in New York trading, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [53]. - South Korea established a task force to crack down on illegal foreign - exchange trading [55].