20260116申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price in the night session first declined and then rose, closing up 0.05%. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has decreased month - on - month, it generally continues to grow at a high rate. The supply disruption of mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a shortage, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price in the night session closed up 0.14%. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Price Movements - Copper price in the night session closed up 0.05%, zinc price closed up 0.14% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - For copper, concentrate supply is tight, smelting output has a high - growth trend, and power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Mine supply disruptions lead to a supply - demand gap expectation [2] - For zinc, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output grows, galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2] Market Data - Domestic Futures and Basis: Copper's domestic previous - day futures closing price is 102,200 yuan/ton, basis is - 120 yuan/ton; aluminum's is 24,155 yuan/ton and - 140 yuan/ton; zinc's is 25,050 yuan/ton and - 45 yuan/ton; nickel's is 145,400 yuan/ton and - 1,860 yuan/ton; lead's is 17,450 yuan/ton and - 140 yuan/ton; tin's is 423,780 yuan/ton and - 14,290 yuan/ton [2] - LME Data: Copper's previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 13,149 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is 37.60 dollars/ton, and LME inventory is 141,625 tons with a daily change of 75 tons; aluminum's is 3,172 dollars/ton, 1.42 dollars/ton, 492,000 tons and - 2,000 tons; zinc's is 3,314 dollars/ton, - 27.62 dollars/ton, 106,725 tons and - 175 tons; nickel's is 18,590 dollars/ton, - 187.88 dollars/ton, 284,658 tons and 510 tons; lead's is 2,097 dollars/ton, - 43.58 dollars/ton, 215,200 tons and - 3,725 tons; tin's is 52,775 dollars/ton, - 114.50 dollars/ton, 5,930 tons and 0 tons [2]