豆粕：观望，等待中加贸易磋商进展；豆一：反弹震荡

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The rating for soybean meal is to wait and see, pending the progress of China-Canada trade consultations. The rating for soybean No.1 is a rebound and oscillation [1]. 2) Core Viewpoints - On January 15, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to strong export sales, domestic soybean crushing demand, and a surge in Chicago soybean oil futures, which offset the pressure from the upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest. The increase in US soybean oil futures was mainly because the US government may set the 2026 biofuel blending quota in March, and US soybean oil inventories were lower than market expectations [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Prices: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4333 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 (+0.09%), and 4351 yuan/ton at night, up 28 (+0.65%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2740 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 (-0.33%), and 2744 yuan/ton at night, down 4 (-0.15%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1052.5 cents per bushel, up 10.0 (+0.96%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 289.2 dollars per short ton, down 2.8 (-0.96%) [1]. - Spot Prices: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was in the range of 3095 - 3180 yuan/ton, with different premiums to the futures contract M2605 for different periods; in East China, prices varied among different enterprises and periods; in South China, prices also showed different premiums and discounts to futures contracts [1]. - Industrial Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 52.6 million tons per day on the previous trading day, down from 87.7 million tons per day two trading days ago. The inventory of soybean meal was 101.88 million tons per week on the previous trading day, down from 105.05 million tons per week two trading days ago [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - Private exporters reported sales of 204,000 tons of US soybeans to China and 545,000 tons to unknown destinations, mostly for delivery in the 2025/26 season. The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, which may maintain a quota similar to the initial proposal and abandon the punitive plan for imported renewable fuels and their raw materials. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with Chinese national leaders on Friday, and the Canadian Foreign Minister said progress had been made in consultations with China on reducing tariffs on Canadian products [3]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3].