宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年1月16日）-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures contracts in 2026 are all expected to be in a state of shock, with an intraday view of shock - weakening [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock - weakening, with a reference view of shock - weakening [5][6]. - Core Logic: The US soybean market is weighing the bearish supply data from the USDA report, potential Chinese procurement demand, and the prospect of a bumper harvest in South American crops. In the domestic market, rapeseed meal is weaker due to improved prospects of rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports. Although pre - holiday stocking has increased soybean meal transactions and the firm Brazilian soybean premium provides some support, the overall supply is loose with high inventory and the resumption of reserve soybean auctions. So, the short - term soybean meal futures price will maintain a shock - weakening trend [5]. Palm Oil (P) - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock - weakening, with a reference view of shock - weakening [6][7]. - Core Logic: The core driver is that Indonesia's biofuel policy is less than expected. The cancellation of the B50 plan and maintaining B40 have disappointed the market's optimistic expectations for biodiesel demand. Despite the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and improved exports, the high inventory pressure is difficult to solve in the short term. The large number of new February purchases by China and India to avoid the export tax increase in Indonesia in March have increased the expected domestic arrival, further suppressing prices. Although pre - holiday stocking and structural inventory differences provide some local support, the short - term palm oil will maintain a shock - weakening pattern [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock - weakening, with a reference view of shock - weakening [6]. - Core Logic: Factors influencing soybean oil include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].