Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the Shanghai copper main contract referring to the range of 101,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M operating range referring to 12,900 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [3] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating range referring to 24,000 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M operating range referring to 3,140 - 3,200 US dollars/ton [5] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to move sideways in the short term [8] - Lead prices may have a short - term pulse - type increase and may follow the sector to make up for the increase [11] - Zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the increase in macro - attributes, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio should be observed [14] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference operating range is 400,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference operating range is 52,000 - 56,000 US dollars/ton [16] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The short - term Shanghai nickel price operating range refers to 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract operating range refers to 17,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [19] - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 156,000 - 169,000 yuan/ton [23] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and it is not cost - effective to chase long. One can wait for an opportunity to arrange short positions in the near - month contract. The domestic main contract AO2605 reference operating range is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26][27] - Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, and the main contract reference operating range is 14,000 - 14,900 yuan/ton [29] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: Geopolitical concerns eased, causing crude oil prices to fall. Concerns about tariffs eased, leading to a decline in silver prices. Copper prices declined and then rebounded. The LME copper 3M closed down 1.14% to 13,148 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,860 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 500 to 141,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory continued to increase, the bonded area inventory decreased month - on - month, and the SHFE daily warrants increased by 13,000 to 163,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 200 yuan/ton higher than the futures, and in Guangdong, it was 130 yuan/ton higher. The spot import loss of Shanghai copper narrowed to about 1,400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,250 yuan/ton, narrowing significantly month - on - month [2] - Strategic Viewpoint: Although high copper prices continue to suppress consumption and there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation, the expected increase in investment by the State Grid during the "15th Five - Year Plan" provides demand support. Coupled with tight supply at the mine end and strong LME spot, copper prices are strongly supported and are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [3] Aluminum - Market Information: The decline in crude oil and precious metals caused aluminum prices to fall. The LME aluminum closed down 0.56% to 3,171 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,320 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 25,000 to 741,000 lots, and the futures warrants increased by 5,000 to 138,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 9,000 tons compared with Monday, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 17,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, and market sentiment was still mostly wait - and - see. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China to futures widened to 130 yuan/ton, and the transaction margin improved. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 to 490,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium [4] - Strategic Viewpoint: Against the background of a decline in the current aluminum - water ratio and high aluminum prices, there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation. However, low overseas inventories and strong spot prices have a positive impact on aluminum prices. Coupled with relatively stable downstream start - up in China and strong resilience in aluminum product exports, as well as the expectation of a rush to export before the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic modules, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated and corrected. The main AD2603 contract closed down 0.93% to 23,155 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract declined to 26,800 lots, and the trading volume was 20,500 lots. The warrants increased by 1,800 to 70,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,220 yuan/ton, widening slightly month - on - month. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area decreased month - on - month, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The trading activity was still average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in the domestic mainstream market increased by 1,100 to 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4,300 to 60,200 tons [7] - Strategic Viewpoint: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and there are continuous disturbances on the supply side, so the price is strongly supported. However, the demand is relatively average, and the price is expected to move sideways in the short term [8] Lead - Market Information: On Thursday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.98% to 17,539 yuan/ton, with a total position of 123,500 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Thursday afternoon, the LME lead 3S rose 27 to 2,083 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 173,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 200 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 26,100 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 165 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 215,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 52,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 43.33 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 104.8 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.209, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 131.15 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in the country's major markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons compared with January 12 [9] - Strategic Viewpoint: In terms of industry status, the visible inventory of lead ore has increased slightly, the lead ore TC has remained at a low level, and the production start - up rate of primary smelting has remained high. The raw material inventory of recycled lead has further declined, and there has been no winter inventory accumulation, with the raw material level significantly lower than in previous years. The production start - up rate of recycled smelting has increased significantly. The finished product inventory of smelters has increased significantly. The production start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined. In terms of sector sentiment, the current lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds has increased. In the double - wide cycle, the relatively strong macro sentiment may drive the lead price to have a short - term pulse - type increase and break away from the fundamental oscillation range. The high - rising macro sentiment has driven the overall upward movement of the non - ferrous metal sector. Shanghai lead is the only basic metal that has not had a significant increase, and the net long positions of macro seats have remained high. There is a possibility that the lead price will follow the sector to make up for the increase [11] Zinc - Market Information: On Thursday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 2.54% to 25,091 yuan/ton, with a total position of 260,900 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Thursday afternoon, the LME zinc 3S rose 85.5 to 3,305 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 228,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 25,410 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 35 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 25 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference was flat. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai area basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 5 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,900 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 14.32 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was 15 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.091, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,265.56 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in the country's major markets was 106,500 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with January 12 [13] - Strategic Viewpoint: In terms of industry status, the visible inventory of zinc ore has increased slightly, the import TC of zinc concentrates has declined again, the zinc smelting profit has slowly increased with the rise of zinc prices, and the industry situation has not improved significantly. In terms of sector sentiment, the non - farm payrolls data in December was lower than expected. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007. Since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. The zinc price still has a large room to make up for the increase compared with copper and aluminum. After the LME issued an announcement on January 15, it triggered market concerns about overseas delivery products. Shanghai zinc increased its position and rose, and its intraday trend was significantly stronger than other varieties in the sector. The net long positions of macro seats have remained high, and the zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the increase in macro - attributes. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio should be observed [14] Tin - Market Information: On Thursday, tin prices continued to rise. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 433,000 yuan/ton at 3 pm, a 4.80% increase compared with the previous day. In terms of supply, the tin ore production in Wa State, Myanmar is gradually recovering. The production start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan has remained at a high level, with a start - up rate of 87.09% last week, basically the same as the previous week. However, due to the continuous low tin ore processing fees, enterprises have insufficient willingness to further start production. Smelters in Jiangxi are facing the dilemma of insufficient supply of recycled raw materials, and the refined tin output has continued to be at a low level. Some enterprises further reduced production slightly last week. In terms of demand, the continuous decline in tin prices has stimulated terminal industries such as electronics and solders to replenish their inventories for rigid needs, but the high prices have also suppressed some downstream purchases, resulting in market transactions mainly based on rigid demand. In terms of inventory, affected by the slight tightening on the supply side and short - term inventory replenishment on the demand side, the SMM tin ingot social inventory last week was reported at 7,478 tons, a significant decrease of 1,042 tons compared with the previous week [15] - Strategic Viewpoint: Although the current tin market demand is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, the bargaining power of downstream enterprises is limited under the situation of low inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference operating range is 400,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference operating range is 52,000 - 56,000 US dollars/ton [16] Nickel - Market Information: On January 15, nickel prices showed a strong trend. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 146,750 yuan/ton, a 4.12% increase compared with the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand gradually declined. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot prices to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot prices was reported at 8,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at 54.54 US dollars/wet ton, a price increase of 2.17 US dollars/wet ton compared with the previous day. The arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices increased significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,012.5 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 30 yuan/nickel point compared with the previous day [18] - Strategic Viewpoint: Currently, the oversupply pressure of nickel is still relatively large, and the continuous increase in disk inventory restricts the upward space of nickel prices. However, macroscopically, the loose domestic liquidity and the Indonesian government's plan to reduce the RKAB quota support the price. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will still oscillate widely in the short term. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term Shanghai nickel price operating range refers to 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract operating range refers to 17,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) reported 157,611 yuan in the evening session, a - 1.97% decrease compared with the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 154,900 - 161,200 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 3,200 yuan (- 1.98%) compared with the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 152,600 - 158,000 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 1.86% compared with the previous day. The closing price of
五矿期货早报：有色金属日报-20260116
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-16 02:37