豆粕期货日报-20260116

Report Summary - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Soybean Meal - Researcher: Chen Bo (Qualification No.: F03138462; Investment Consultation Certificate No.: Z0022938) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to the bearish USDA report and high inventory of imported soybeans, while the domestic soybean meal inventory remains high and the overall consumption has not improved significantly. Technically, the price has fallen below the lower edge of the recent trading range, indicating a clear bearish pattern. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to the impact of subsequent imported soybean auctions and South American weather changes on market sentiment. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 13, 2026, the opening price of the DCE soybean meal main contract (M.DCE) was 2,799 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,761 yuan/ton, a 0.9% decline from the previous trading day. The highest price was 2,805 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2,756 yuan/ton, the daily trading volume was 1,180,639 lots, and the open interest was 2,258,105 lots. [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 13, 2026, the spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 2,761 yuan/ton, with a basis of 439 yuan/ton. The spot market was strong while the futures market was weak. [5] 3.3影响因素 3.3.1产业资讯 - International market: The USDA January supply and demand report was bearish. The US soybean production reached 4.262 billion bushels, higher than the December estimate, and the Brazilian soybean production in 2025/26 was raised to 178 million tons. The CBOT soybean March contract closed down at 1,050 cents/bushel. [6] - Supply and demand fundamentals: In the first week of 2026, the imported soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons, an increase of 558,100 tons or 8.53% from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons, an increase of 2,600 tons or 0.22% from the previous week, both at relatively high levels, indicating supply pressure. [6] - Market transactions: On January 12, the total soybean meal transactions of major oil mills in China were 1.1593 million tons, an increase of 675,100 tons from the previous trading day, with the forward basis transactions accounting for 93%, concentrated in May - July 2026. [6] - Cost side: On January 13, the arrival cost of imported soybeans was 3,848.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43.58 yuan/ton or 1.12% from the previous workday, weakening the cost support. [6] 3.3.2技术分析 - In the past five trading days, the soybean meal main contract showed a downward - oscillating trend. From January 7 to January 13, the price fluctuated in the range of 2,756 - 2,827 yuan/ton, showing an "M" - shaped pattern overall. The price rose 1.74% on January 7, then fell for two consecutive days, rebounded slightly by 0.14% on January 12, and fell again by 0.90% on January 13, indicating that the bearish force was dominant. [6] 3.4行情展望 - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to imported soybean auctions and South American weather changes. [9]